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MessagePosté: 28 Oct 2014, 14:10 
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Date : 28th October 2014

EURUSD TRADING NEAR THE 1.2700 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.


URUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2967. The European Central Bank reported that during the last week purchased 1.7 billion Euro worth of covered bonds. Data from Germany indicated that the German IFO Business Climate dropped to a level of 103.2 in October. The data from the United States followed the negative tone with the Pending Home Sales increasing less than the market expectations with a rise of 0.3 percent in September. The Flash Services PMI in the largest economy in the world also dropped to a level of 57.3 in October.

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Investors are now looking forward for the Core Durable Goods Orders and the CB Consumer Confidence releases due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2713.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 29 Oct 2014, 12:53 
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Date : 29th October 2014

EURUSD REVERSED ITS GAINS AND CONSOLIDATES AHEAD OF THE FOMC STATEMENT.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2729. The United States dollar lost ground against its European counterpart after the Core Durable Goods Orders dropped -0.2 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Durable Goods Orders also recorded a drop of -1.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. However part of the losses were capped after the CB Consumer Confidence in the largest economy in the world hit a 7-year high level of 94.5 in October.

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Investors are now looking forward for the Core Durable Goods Orders and the CB Consumer Confidence releases due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2624 and resistance is seen at 1.2713.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 30 Oct 2014, 14:04 
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Is Fed Being Bullish About US Economy Enough? - HotForex Blog https://blog.hotforex.com/is-fed-being-bullish-about-us-economy-enough/

The Federal Reserve statement cited “solid job gains and lower unemployment rate” and suggested that there is a positive trend in labour resource utilisation: “a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing”. The Fed continues to lean on its verbal arsenal rather than real action, such as QE. The first case of such verbal action was two weeks ago when Mr Bullard appeared on Bloomberg and suggested that there should be more QE. This appearance coincided with the US stock market being at major technical support; the stock market rallied from the level after his comments.

Now the Fed seemingly hopes to support the equity market by being bullish about growth in the USA. Even though the statement included a promise to keep the borrowing costs low for a “considerable time”, a wording that they have used frequently in the recent past, it is likely that interest rates will rise eventually and the Fed needs all the verbal bullishness it can muster. This in fact is the only option the Fed has if it wants to keep steering off from Quantitative Easing.

In Japan the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda is scheduled to appear before the parliament today and tomorrow will be the Bank of Japan press conference. Markets are not expecting new QE announcements from Japan tomorrow as only three of 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month predicted that policy makers would expand asset purchases at a meeting on Friday. According to Bloomberg the central bank buys about $64 billion of bonds each month.

For recent and upcoming economic reports see: HotForex Economic Calendar

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USDJPY, Weekly

USDJPY has moved higher from a support level and approaches the latest highs and weekly Bollinger Bands, a potential resistance area. USDJPY has been this high the last time in 2008. The weekly candle (hammer) suggests the trend higher will eventually continue and that the current resistance is eventually cleared. This is supported by the current view that the Fed is not likely to start another QE program while the Bank of Japan will continue being aggressive in their efforts to increase inflation via Quantitative Easing. Should there be changes to this underlying setup, the markets would surely re-price the USDJPY. In the near term we are likely witness some range bound price action as the USD bulls are trying to push the pair higher.

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USDJPY, 4h

The pair has been rising higher in a well defined trend channel. After yesterday’s FOMC statement it shot up like a rocket and reached the level of daily Bollinger Bands. They coincide with the proximity of the upper end of the channel. At the same time the Stochastic Oscillator is deep in the overbought area. All this is reflected in the 4h candle forming a bearish shooting star (a sign of momentum reversal). Therefore I am expecting USDJPY to move lower from the current levels to the support below. The nearest 4h support level is also the daily high from 27th Oct at 108.40.

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USDJPY, 1h

The 60 minute chart reveals a support level approximately at 108.90-108.95 which coincides with a 50 period SMA in the 15 minute chart. This area could theoretically act as a support, but the immediate upside seems to be limited. It isn’t typical for prices to keep on going higher if they’ve been moving in an uptrend and then get shot up to a resistance after a news event. In my experience buying after such a move is too risky and does not usually produce trades with good profit potential.

Conclusion: The pair is at a resistance area, but keeping the likely future central bank actions in mind it makes sense to expect USD to gain further against the JPY. However, the resistance has to be cleared first and this probably means that the price has to consolidate a bit and retrace to support areas before the 4h trend higher can continue. Look for buy opportunities if the support 108.40 is touched. A return move there and we should be looking for signs of momentum reversal to go long. Sell high and buy low as the saying goes. Look to sell against a resistance and buy against a support.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


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MessagePosté: 03 Nov 2014, 14:58 
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Date : 1st November 2014

EURUSD HOLDS BELOW THE 1.2500 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION.


EURUSD dropped on Friday and closed at 1.2523. The Retail Sales in the Germany dropped 3.2 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone matched the market expectations coming at a reading of 0.4 percent on an annual basis in October. The Unemployment Level remained unchanged at 11.5 percent in September. Data from the United States revealed that the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to a level of 86.9 in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the ISM Manufacturing PMI data due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 04 Nov 2014, 14:54 
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The markets’ focus this week will be on US Non-Farm Employment change which will be reported on Friday. Expectation is that the US economy has added 229 000 new jobs while the previous month’s figure was 248 000 which beat analysts expectations. Traders will get a preview on employment data tomorrow as private Automatic Data Processing Inc. publishes their estimation of the Non-Farm figures. The ADP figure doesn’t always track well with the official number, but it is still an event that markets pay attention to. It is expected that ADP will report 214 000 new jobs outside the farming industry and should there be a significant deviation from the expected number of jobs, there would be stronger market reaction in the dollar pairs.

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DXY Weekly:


The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trending higher as slowdown in global economic activity once again means that the US economy is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket. There is an element of flight to quality combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates sooner than other central banks in major economies. The Index has reached a four year high which has brought it to a weekly pivot from June 2010 (red lines). This has caused the sideways move we have seen lately. Support can be found at the latest weekly high (blue line) and the weekly target is the high of the weekly pivot (from June 2010). This coincides with the 4.250 Fibonacci extension target calculated from the price action from May to June this year.

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DXY 240 min:


The current sideways move in the 4h chart is due to a Fibonacci extension cluster (navy lines in the chart) and the historical weekly pivot low creating a resistance. Index is getting close to the upper end of the trend channel and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is overbought, but that is typical in an uptrend. I look for a continuation of the trend, but would not rule out a short lived correction to the nearest 4h support. Should the index have a correction I would look to trade against the area of the recent gap and the previous high. I believe this area will attract dollar buyers if it is reached. The Fibonacci extension level could well be the first target as it coincides with trend channel top. The numbers 1 to 3 in the chart help the readers to see which points I have used in drawing the Fibonacci extension target.

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DXY 60 min:

The intraday price action is at the time of writing taking place at an intraday support zone created by a previous low and the pivot high before that (blue lines). My experience is that support levels are not exact levels but rather areas or zones. That is why I don’t focus on one single point value as a support but rather draw couple of levels and have zone between them. The Index is at lower Bollinger Bands that coincide with this support. While MFI is oversold in this timeframe, this support level could provide an opportunity for dollar longs. If the level breaks look for trades at the support at 240 min. gap.

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DXY and USDJPY, 240 min.


Conclusion

The US Dollar Index is at a historical resistance (weekly pivot from 2010) that coincides with a Fibonacci extension cluster calculated from pivots in a 4 hour chart. I expect the trend to continue with the first target in the region of 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the channel top. If the current support in 1h chart does not hold then I would look for long USD trades (i.e. short EUR, AUD or JPY for instance) close at the area of 4h gap and previous weekly high. However, we have to remember that all currency pairs are individual markets with their own characteristics. Therefore, pay attention to potential support and resistance areas in currency pairs you intend to trade. In other words, traders should do their own analysis as well reading mine. By doing analysis on DXY my intention is to provide traders with a framework by which the moves in USD pairs can be better understood. As can be seen from the chart above the price action in DXY future helps in understanding what is likely to happen for instance in USDJPY. In order to increase the probabilities of winning, it is advisable to trade the USD against weak currencies such as AUD, JPY and EUR and not the likes of GBP. As we have already seen GBPUSD has relative strength while the USD has been moving higher.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


https://blog.hotforex.com/us-dollar-index-in-four-year-highs/


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MessagePosté: 04 Nov 2014, 15:16 
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Date : 4th November 2014

EURUSD CONSOLIDATES IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. US TRADE BALANCE DATA ON TAP.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2481. The Final Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came out at a reading of 50.6 in October. The European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny stated in an interview for a newspaper that the ECB needs to be cautious about buying government bonds from the European countries.

Data from the United States supported the US dollar strength. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 59.0 in October. On the other hand the Construction Spending dropped to a reading of -0.4 percent in September. The ISM Manufacturing Prices also registered a drop coming at a reading of 53.5 in September.

Investors are now looking forward for the US Trade Balance data.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 05 Nov 2014, 16:24 
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Date : 5th November 2014

EURUSD SLIPPED BELOW THE 1.2500 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI FROM THE UNITED STATES ON TAP.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2544. The European Commission downgraded the economic growth projections for the Eurozone to 0.8 percent for 2014 and 1.1 percent for 2015 from the previous 1.2 and 1.7 percent for the same periods citing the slowdown in the global economy. The inflation forecast for the Eurozone was also lowered to 0.8 percent for 2015 and 1.5 percent for 2016.

The US dollar lost ground after worse than expected Factory Orders report. In September the factory orders in the largest economy of the world dropped 0.6 percent.

A report indicated that the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the United States rose to a reading of 230K in October. Market had expected a drop to 214K. Investors are now looking forward for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI due from the United States later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 06 Nov 2014, 11:52 
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Euro off its lows against the U.S. Dollar ahead of critical ECB meeting - https://blog.hotforex.com/euro-off-its-lows-against-the-u-s-dollar-ahead-of-critical-ecb-meeting/

The Euro managed to trade off its yesterday’s lows during Asian trading session managing a consolidation just above 1.25 against the U.S. Dollar. Investors will be closely looking today’s ECB meeting despite the fact that no fresh stimulus is expected to be announced. The recent rumors that some members of ECB were unhappy with Draghi’s aggressive stimulus push have given an extra interest in today’s policy rate meeting.

On the other hand, Bank of England’s policy rate meeting is expected to be a non-event for the markets as no change in policy is expected. The Pound has been struggling against the U.S. Dollar after the Scottish referendum and has recently being hovering around 1.60. Yesterday GBP/USD attempted a break below the recent tight trading range having touched 1.5875 but it quickly bought up to trade 15 pips short of 1.6 just before European market opening.

USD/JPY continued its uptrend recording a fresh 6-year high earlier this morning at 115.50 before retreating fiercely to trade in the area of 114.30. The price movement has been closely correlated with a Japanese stocks selloff, but it better explained as a profit taking, position closing ahead of the policy rate meetings later today and the market moving U.S. NFPs tomorrow afternoon.

XAU/USD traded to new 4- year lows yesterday managing a break from the recent lows to trade as low 1137.60 $/ounce. The precious metal is now consolidating near that area with the bearish sentiment still in place.

BOE policy rate meeting takes place at 12:00 GMT and will be followed 45 minutes later by ECB announcement. Mario Draghi’s press conference which will be expected with great interest will be held at 13:30 GMT.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.


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MessagePosté: 06 Nov 2014, 14:41 
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Date : 6th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE ECB MINIMUM BID RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2485. The Retail Sales in the Eurozone dropped to a reading of -1.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. The Final Services in the EU slowed down to a level of 52.3 in October.

In the United States the Republicans gained control over the US senate for a first time since 2006 during the midterm 2014 elections.

In the economic news the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 57.1 in October. On the other hand the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out better than the market expectations at a reading of 230K in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision and the ECB Press Conference due from the Europe and the Unemployment Claims report due from the United States. Depending on the outcome of the releases we might witness high volatility on the market and investors should be fully aware of that.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2459 and resistance is seen at 1.2585.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 07 Nov 2014, 14:34 
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Date : 7th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHED BELOW THE 1.2400 LEVEL AFTER THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. US NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT ON TAP.


EURUSD dropped sharply yesterday and closed at 1.2374. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi indicated yesterday that the policymakers are preparing additional stimulus measures to inject liquidity in the economy of the Eurozone if needed. ECB maintained its Minimum Bid Rate at 0.05 percent in line with the market expectations.

Data released from the United States indicated that the number of people claiming initial unemployment benefits dropped to 278K during the last week. The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Cleveland Loretta Mester anticipated a rise in the interest in the largest economy in the world to come sometime in 2015, citing the stable inflation.

Investors are now focused on the outcome of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report and the Unemployment Rate data. Later today the President of the United States Federal Reserve Janet Yellen speaks at the Bank of France’s Symposium “Central Banking: The Way Forward?,” in Paris.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2368 and resistance is seen at 1.2563.

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Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 07 Nov 2014, 16:47 
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Coffee time?

The price of coffee has risen since the November 2013 lows by almost 80% while the latest high from October 2014 is slightly more than 112 % higher from the same low. This momentous move was caused by two things coinciding relatively close to each other. Firstly, after a long period of decline the price of coffee reached an important historical support level (December 2008 low) which led to the price of coffee breaking out of the descending trend channel. Secondly, the market was flooded with new demand as news about worsening drought conditions in Brazil hit the news wires. The country is the biggest coffee producer and exporter in the world. Just lately, we have seen the price of coffee declining due the reversion of the same theme. According to Bloomberg, hedge funds decreased their positions in coffee futures as rains brought relief to the droughts in Brazil. So, is it all about the weather? Would we need to know the future rain patterns in Brazil in order to benefit from this market? It certainly seems like a sensible proposition. However, there is another option. We can define the technically important levels, wait for the market to approach those levels and trade this market based purely on price action.


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Coffree, Weekly

The price of coffee has been swinging wildly between the July 2014 low and the October 2014 high. We now have a higher high but it was created with a lower volume than the previous high from April this year. This can be seen both in the volume and Money Flow Index (MFI) and has resulted in a lower high in MFI, meaning we had a bearish divergence associated with the latest move into the resistance. It is interesting that this move into resistance happened on the same day that Bloomberg had a news piece with a headline: “Coffee futures jump to 32 month high, on Brazil crop woes”. Yes, the news was true but the price didn’t move higher but rather stalled at resistance. Nine days later the futures opened with a sizeable gap and headed south. This was a clear example of how traders should pay attention to technical levels and use the technical toolkit available to them. Now the price of coffee is at a weekly pivot from September this year and has been edging slowly lower. As the price is close to an area that attracted buyers the last time, I would be monitoring the price action in lower time frames in order to find signs of momentum reversal. Support at September low and nearest resistance at a gap coinciding with weekly Bollinger Bands and a former resistance from July and September.


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Coffee, 240 min.

The fact that price has reached a potential support area can be seen in how the price reacts. While the price is still moving lower in a descending trend channel it is forming a wedge like formation as the navy colored trend at the lower end of the channel is approaching the top of the channel. This suggests that the balance in supply and demand is slowly turning to favor the long side. There is a 4h support area right below the current price action and we have had one quick move inside this level. The move was rejected, but the price (a hammer candle was created) has again edged closer to the level. This suggests to me that we might not see an explosive move higher from here, but rather a gradual change in the direction of the price. The nearest 4h resistance level is at the high of the wide range up bar that followed the hammer candle and coincides with the Bollinger Bands. The next resistances are likewise at the highs of the pivot bars. This could act as targets for short-term scalping trades.

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Coffee, 60 min.

The picture we get from the 1h chart is not that different to the 4h chart. A confirmation of the first signs of momentum reversal would be a move outside the wedge and the descending trend channel accompanied with a higher low or steady up move outside the channel.

Conclusion:

The fundamental picture has, at least momentarily, changed with the recent rain in Brazil. Therefore it can be questioned whether the price of coffee will be able to create yet another higher high. At the same time though, we are at a technical level. This level has attracted buyers in the past and if the signs of momentum reversal continue, then we have a case for a long trade. Look for breakout above the channel as a confirmation of this view.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


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MessagePosté: 10 Nov 2014, 13:52 
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European dilemma: to QE or not to QE? https://blog.hotforex.com/european-dilemma-to-qe-or-not-to-qe/

The malaise of the economies in the euro zone is not news anymore. The same applies to, European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi’s readiness to revive the European economies by quantitative easing (QE). Mr. Draghi, being an Italian, has a special motivation to boost the economic activity in Europe as his own country is one of the most troubled economies in the euro zone. However, the Germans, who have seen the devastating impact of hyperinflation in the not so distant history, are unwilling to start a QE program. This, added to the fact that European leaders are famous for their slow decision making process, could mean that the QE program is further delayed or implemented smaller than expected. Whether there is another QE program or not, the European economies will remain weak for an extended period of time. Europe needs structural reforms in order to become competitive and these changes tend to take time before they can be implemented and the benefits can be reaped. In addition, another flood of cheap QE money would not solve these problems, but only delay these reforms that eventually have to be implemented.

As the EUR has such a heavy weighting in the DXY index (almost 60%), it is often almost a mirror image of the EURUSD.” to “As the EUR has such a heavy weighting in the DXY index (almost 60%), the DXY is often almost a mirror image of the EURUSD

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EURUSD, Weekly

The pair is now between resistance and support. EURUSD has reached a weekly pivot high from July 2012 and reacted higher from it. At the same time we have the September weekly low right above us. That should keep the downward pressure on EURUSD and limit moves higher from the current levels. In light of the above it is reasonable to expect to have EURUSD fluctuating between the support and resistance over the coming week. In the longer term picture, the pair is at a lower end of a multi-year sideways move. Thus far, traders have not been able to push EURUSD below the support zone above $1.20. Part of the reason for EURUSD fluctuating in this huge trading range is the fact that we have two central banks on both sides manipulating their currencies. That is a reason to stay alert and see how the price reacts close to this historical support level.


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EURUSD, Daily

EURUSD is forming a big wedge as it fluctuates close to the bottom of the longer term sideways move. When price forms a wedge after a longish down move it is a signal that the downside momentum is getting weaker. However, the pair is still moving lower as per traditional trend analysis (it is making lower highs and lower lows). Since Thursday last week the pair has moved up to a resistance after touching the weekly support at 1.2390. The price action from 31st Oct. to 5th Nov. (at and above of the current levels) is already causing slowing of momentum and is likely to act as a resistance. This area should provide us with opportunities on the short side.


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EURUSD, 240 min

There is a confluence area above the current price. The price is not only facing the resistance created by Wednesday’s low from last week but also the descending 50 period moving average and the descending upper end of the trend channel. In addition, the 4h Bollinger Bands are relatively close and the Money Flow Index (MFI) is turning lower while in over bought zone. Therefore, I am expecting the price to turn lower again somewhere between the current levels and the Bollinger Bands. Look for signs of momentum reversal (such as shooting stars) to confirm this view and the timing of the shorts.


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US Dollar Index (DXY), 240 min

As the EUR has such a heavy weighting in the DXY index (almost 60%), it is often almost a mirror image of the EURUSD. Therefore, the EURUSD analysis we have made should be confirmed by the price action in the DXY futures. As we can see DXY is reacting higher from a supportive area that coincides (timing wise) with the resistance area in the EURUSD. This supports the idea of selling EURUSD at the levels suggested in my analysis

Conclusion:

The pair is in at an important weekly support level which has already proven to be valid enough to cause price to rally from it. However, at the same time the fundamentals support the view that the EUR should move lower and the USD higher. Therefore the resistance level above the current price should keep any rallies in check. The bias is on the short side as the pair is now close to very potential resistance area. We are looking for short trades between the current levels and the 4h Bollinger Bands if there is confirmation of a momentum reversal in intraday timeframes. Look to take profits when price approaches the weekly support at 1.2390.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


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MessagePosté: 10 Nov 2014, 14:04 
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Date : 10th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. LIGHT ECONOMIC CALENDAR TODAY.


EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2454. The Non-Farm Payrolls in the United States rose less than the market expectations to a level of 214K in October. Market had expected an increase of 235K. On the other hand the Unemployment Rate in the largest economy in the world dropped to a level of 5.8 percent in October reaching its lowest level since 2008. The Average Hourly Earnings in the US recorded a gain of 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in October. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen pointed towards the weak government support across the globe as a reason for the global economic slowdown.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Chicago Charles Evans urged the US central bank to remain patient while increasing the interest rates. He also opined that the US economy will grow 3 percent in the next 18 months, but remained skeptical for the inflation to reach the 2 percent target soon.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2368 and resistance is seen at 1.2526.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 12 Nov 2014, 15:35 
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In an uptrend but with some underlying weakness

Quite often we can find clues on market psychology by analysing the S&P 500 sectors’ performance in relation to the main index itself. If a safe haven sector such as utilities is gaining ground and the financial sector is lagging well behind, we then have a hint of market participants becoming more risk averse. This is based on the fact that the long only funds cannot but stay in stocks whatever the market circumstances. Therefore, if they are worried about market prospects over the coming weeks or months their only option is to move away from higher volatility and growth stocks into less volatile dividend plays such as utility stocks. Without this manoeuvre they would take a risk of taking a hit that is likely to going to be bigger than the potential down move in the index. This of course will cause the utility stocks to move higher while stocks in riskier sectors decline in relation to S&P 500 index.

Over the last month the undisputed market leader has been the industrial sector. Financials that usually lead the market when the move is strong have had a close to average performance with the technology and utilities sectors and only slightly better than the performance of the S&P 500. This is not a strong signal to either direction. If we focus on the last six trading days, the picture is slightly different. Now we have the utility stocks over performing both the S&P 500 and financials and the technology. Utility sector has (in relation to the S&P 500) gained +0.34% while the financial sector is down by -0.28% and technology by -0.71%. Therefore, we have a notion of bearishness in the way the professionals have been allocating their assets over the last few days.

Image

Weekly

The E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) charts are showing some signs of momentum slow down. Last week’s bar had quite a narrow range compared to the previous week. If this is repeated and we have another sluggish week with a narrow range, the likelihood of the market correcting lower from the newly made highs increases. We will not obviously know this before we have seen what happens over the rest of the week and therefore should not jump to conclusions about the longer term trend.

But what is the longer term trend and how well it is doing? At the moment the trend is still higher, but in the previous US stock market analysis I wrote at the end of October, I suggested that we might have a sideways market ahead as the market made a lower weekly low for the first time since the 2011 topping formation (that lead to a sizeable correction in the fall of 2011). In addition, the more risky small and medium capitalisation stock index, Russell 2000, has been underperforming the major indices since March this year. At the time of writing, Russell 2000, alongside the more volatile German DAX , has not been able to move with the major indices (Dow Jones and S&P 500) into new highs. I should also point out that the number of stocks rising versus the number of stocks falling in the New York Stock Exchange has been getting smaller since October 22nd. These are all signs of underlying weakness in the current up move.

Now that ES has made a new high I have to obviously re-evaluate my analysis and ask the question whether my view of potential sideways move is still relevant. An uptrend is defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows, which means that by this definition the market is still moving higher in a trend. The existence of the aforementioned underlying weaknesses however means that we need to pay attention to how the market behaves (in intraday timeframes) at key levels. This in turn will define the outcome on the weekly level.

Image

240 min.

Judging from a daily ES chart one of these key levels is an area between the September 19th high and November 3rd high (2014.50 – 2019.25). Please note that these point values refer to E-mini S&P futures contract and the point values in other indices tracking S&P 500 index may have a slight variation to it. I have however included the dates so that it is convenient and easy for you to verify the levels from your own charting platform. This key area almost coincides with the rising trend line (currently above the levels). I believe that the level should attract buyers that want to trade against the recent high (previous resistance = current support). In addition to the support from September high and trend line, the 50 period simple moving average (SMA) coincides with the same level. This is an additional reason to believe that a significant number of traders will view this area as important. If price moves to this level, I suggest looking for momentum reversal confirmations such as hammer candles in order to enter into long trades. However, for the price to reach these levels it needs first to move below a Fibonacci extension cluster (black lines) that currently supports the price. As can be seen from the chart, this cluster is actually pretty much spot on at the same level as the rising trend line.

Conclusion:

Weekly momentum appears to be fading but this week’s close defines the picture for the coming weeks. The weekly close obviously has greater indication value of what is happening with the momentum than the midweek price action we are now witnessing. There is underlying weakness which suggests that the price will correct to levels close to the September high, which could provide us with opportunities on the long side. We would need to see a sizeable rally (into new highs) from that level to change the weekly picture in terms of the momentum fade (that I have been writing about) otherwise we will have another narrow range or potentially even downward candle. That would indicate more bearish market conditions and a possibly a correction below the September 19th high. If the price reaches the ES 2014.50 – 2019.25 area, look for hammer candles and other signs of reversal of downside momentum in the 60 min. timeframe. After these signals we should see a fast move higher to confirm the idea. In case the price starts to move sideways and does not have a healthy and fast reaction from the level, it is likely that it has to find lower levels to bounce from.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


https://blog.hotforex.com/in-an-uptrend-but-with-some-underlying-weakness/


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MessagePosté: 13 Nov 2014, 13:23 
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Date : 13th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER AHEAD OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS REPORT. FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN SPEAKS LATER TODAY.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2434. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi stated that ECB is ready to take further unconventional measures if the inflation expectations in the Eurozone weaken further. He also stated that the interest rates in the region will remain at the record low levels for an extend period of time.

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In the economic news the Industrial Production in the Eurozone rose 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in September. The German Wholesale Price Index dropped -0.6 percent on a monthly basis in October.

The President of the United States Federal Reserve in Philadelphia Charles Plosser stated that Fed should raise the interest rates sooner than later, citing the considerable progress of the US economy. On the other hand the President of Minneapolis Fed Narayana Kocherlakota stated that raising the rates of 2015 would be inappropriate due to the fragile nature of the US economic recovery.

Investors are now looking forward for the Unemployment Claims report and the speech of the Fed Chief Janet Yellen due later today.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2404 and resistance is seen at 1.2507.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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MessagePosté: 17 Nov 2014, 12:18 
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Date : 17th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHING LOWER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI SPEAKS LATER TODAY.


EURUSD rose on Friday and closed at 1.2523. The Gross Domestic Product in the Eurozone rose 0.2 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2014. The ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure stated that fiscal policy should be used together with the monetary policies to spur the growth in the Euro are, cause the monetary policies alone cannot do the job.

Data from the United States showed that the Retail Sales in the largest economy in the world rose more than expected on a monthly basis registering a 0.3 percent rise in October. The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment recorded its highest reading since July 2007 coming at 89.4 in November. The Business Inventories in the United States also recorded a gain of 0.3 percent in line with the market expectations in September. On Friday the President of the United States Federal Reserve in St Louis, James Bullard hinted that the FOMC would raise the key interest rates in 2015 and it would depend on macroeconomic data.

In the mean time EURUSD continues to print new session lows in the European session. Investors are looking forward for the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi on Monetary Policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairsin Brussels.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2404 and resistance is seen at 1.2568.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 18 Nov 2014, 15:06 
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US shale oil, the new North Sea https://blog.hotforex.com/us-shale-oil-the-new-north-sea/

The strength of the dollar has been a driver for the lower price in oil but there have also been other factors. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the world cut recently oil the price of oil it sells to the United States. This was a sign that the oil cartel OPEC is not likely to cut production in order to prop up the market and stop the decline in the price of oil. This far Saudi Arabia has been the one bearing the lion’s share whenever there have been production cuts. The other members of the cartel have enjoyed the higher prices following the price cuts but have not cut their own production. This is not sitting well with the Saudis and this time they might keep the production going in order to discourage new investment in shale oil production in the US. In other words they are protecting their market share.

While demand is lacklustre the supply side has remained strong and is even increasing. The Russian supply has not decreased even though the west has imposed sanctions on them and at the same time US shale oil production is still on the increase. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) an average new well in North Dakota increases production by 100 barrels per day. Some analysts have referred to US shale oil production as the new North Sea. The findings in the oil fields of North Sea in 1986 had a major impact on oil prices. During years of 1984 and 1985 the price of US crude oil had been ranging between $24.66 and $31.50 per barrel, but in 1986 the price of oil plummeted to $9.75 (a drop of 69%). For the rest of the decade the price of oil fluctuated between the $9.75 low and the high of $22.76 per barrel. Oil price was not able to sustain levels above $23 before the year 2000, except for a brief period time between July 1990 and January 1991 as the Gulf war one broke out.

If the analysts are right about the US being the new North Sea, we still see lower prices for crude oil as the difference with the June 2014 high and yesterday’s close is only 28.6%. The world economy is slowing down as the central banks have not been able to manipulate the economies back into growth path with their QE programs and the supply of oil is still increasing. Therefore, further declines in the price of oil should be expected and once the low has been reached we should prepare for a period of lower prices unless a large scale geopolitical conflict significantly disrupts oil production. Further decline in prices will eventually have an impact on the supply side investments and this will in due course cause the price oil to stabilise. What might this “in due course” mean time wise? It is very challenging to estimate this based on the fundamental trends as the price of oil is a sum of numerous outside forces from monetary policy to terrorist attacks. From the technical perspective the price of oil has reached levels that have been psychologically important in the past. Therefore it is interesting to follow the price action as these levels are approached.

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Crude Oil, Weekly

Close to weekly support of $72.52, a weekly pivot from May 2010. This level has turned the prices higher in the past which means that the price action needs to be monitored closely here. At some level there we will have a situation where price turn higher before the news and fundamentals get better. Therefore, there will be a disconnect between the price action and the news about the fundamentals. However, at the moment we are still in a downtrend and there are no signs of bottoming or major divergence between the price and the oscillators. It takes in average 3 or 4 months to reverse the trend in crude oil market after a significant decline.


Image

Crude Oil, 240 min

A very clear downtrend with attempts to get above recent supports turned into resistances. The Money Flow Index is overbought and the price is close to Bollinger Bands with a resistance right above the current price action. The first two moves (A and B) after a support was broken have been equal in size. Meaning that price has moved roughly a similar distance before rising back to the former support level (red lines). This time (move C) the price of oil turned higher earlier and has reached the resistance without touching the price projection level. This suggests weakness in downside momentum but we are still seeing reversal of contra trend momentum at 76.43 resistance (60 min shooting star), which is a sell signal for me in this context. Should a move higher happen, we have a potential resistance level close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracements (drawn from point 1 to point 2) that coincides with the descending trend line at around $77.30. I have switched the other Fibonacci levels off to make the chart more readable.


Image

Crude Oil, 60 min.

Conclusion:
The short term bias is down. Even though we have seen some weakness in downside momentum, the price is still in downtrend. Look to participate at resistance levels if the price action confirms the validity of the level (by momentum reversal signals). In the longer term timeframe we are close to levels that have potential to act as major support and turn the price of oil higher. We will not obviously know beforehand when prices turn but for the last 30 years or so it has taken on average 3 to 4 months to create a trend reversal in oil after a major move lower. Therefore, there is no hurry to get to the long side. Rather we should concentrate on trading against the resistances as long as those trades work and buy the positions back at levels where the risk of price rebounding higher is increased. I would look to cover my shorts as the price approaches the levels close to weekly support at $73.25.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


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MessagePosté: 18 Nov 2014, 16:23 
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Date : 18th November 2014

EURUSD PUSHED ABOVE THE 1.2500 LEVEL AFTER BETTER THAN EXPECTED ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT REPORTS.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2448. During his speech yesterday, the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi reinforced the commitment of the central bank for using additional unconventional measures to stimulate the growth in the Euro area if needed. The ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch cautioned about the possible negative effects of sovereign bond purchases which according to Draghi remain as an option.

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Data released from the United States showed that the Industrial Production in the largest economy in the world unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent on a monthly basis in October. Another report indicated that the Empire States Manufacturing Index rose less than expected to a reading of 10.6 in November, but recorded a sharp gain from the previous month’s reading of 6.17.

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data released today indicated a sharp rise to 11.5 in November. Market had expected a reading of 0.9. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone followed the positive tone coming at a reading of 11.0 in November against the market expectations of 4.3.

Data released from the United States showed that the Producer Price Index in the US rose more than expected in October recording a gain of 0.2 percent.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2445 and resistance is seen at 1.2568.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

_________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 19 Nov 2014, 14:49 
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Date : 19th November 2014

LOW VOLATILITY ON EURUSD AHEAD OF THE US BUILDING PERMITS DATA. FOMC MEETING MINUTES ON TAP TODAY.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2536. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to a level of 11.5 in November registering its first rise since December 2014. The ECB Governing Council Member Klass Knot mentioned that the ECB is ready to use additional QE measures if needed including government bonds.

Data from the United States indicated that the NAHB Housing Market Index surprisingly rose to a reading of 58.0 in November. The Producer Price Index also rose registering a rise of 0.2 percent on a monthly basis in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the Building Permits and Housing Starts reports due from the United States in the afternoon. The FOMC Meeting Minutes are the top fundamental event scheduled on the Economic Calendar for the day ahead. Investors should be fully aware that during the time of the release there might be high volatility on the market.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2444 and resistance is seen at 1.2547.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

_________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 20 Nov 2014, 13:48 
SVP, merci de traduire en francais pour ceu qui serait faché avec l'anglais ..... :roll: :roll:

Ici c'est une communauté FRANCOPHONE et non anglophone....


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MessagePosté: 20 Nov 2014, 14:59 
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Date : 20th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING SIDEWAYS AHEAD OF THE CPI AND UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DATA FROM THE UNITED STATES.


EURUSD rose yesterday and closed at 1.2553. The ratings agency S&P warned the European Central Bank about its monetary stimulus program yesterday. According to the S&P the associated with it could potentially lead to another recession in the EU. The FOMC Meeting Minutes in the United States indicated that the policymakers discussed the option to retain the interest rates to the current low levels for a longer period. Later on they came to a conclusion that the rate increases would depend on the economic situation in the largest economy of the world.

On the economic front the Building Permits in the US surprised the markets recording a rise of 1.08M in October.

Investors are now looking forward for the CPI data and the Unemployment Claims report due from the United States.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2444 and resistance is seen at 1.2547.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 20 Nov 2014, 16:02 
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RBA worried about Chinese Property Market

According to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Board of Reserve Bank of Australia from 4th November, the bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. This decision was influenced by the worries related to what the bank described as “considerable uncertainty to the outlook for the Chinese property market and the broader implications for the Chinese economy”. This is understandably a major worry to Australia as China is the most important trading partner for the Australians. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth was expected to stay below the trend during the years 2014 and 2015 with some acceleration expected in 2016. Low interest rates support the economic activity, but the spare capacity in the labour force mean that inflationary pressures stay low. The Australian dollar is still overvalued in light of most estimates and according to the bank “the exchange rate was offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy”. Based on the above, the Reserve Bank of Australia, like so many other central banks, would like to see their currency at lower levels. This means that they are not likely to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. Still, compared to Europe the Australian economy is so much more robust and therefore a better bet from an investment point of view. This and the interest rates differential means that the Australian dollar is likely attract more money than the euro in the long run. However, at the moment we have a short to medium term technical setup that seems to favour the euro.

Image

EURAUD, Weekly

In September the pair found buyers at a historical support from 2011 that coincided with a rising trend line. Since EURAUD has now created a higher low at the beginning of November I am betting that it will eventually move higher. The pair is currently trying to push through a resistance area between 1.4592 and 1.4706. If we will see a move lower from this resistance, I expect the weekly high of 1.4440 (see the daily chart below) to provide support and help to create a new higher low in EURAUD. This in turn would support the view that the pair is indeed going to move higher. Once this resistance area has been penetrated, the next target is a weekly high at 1.5022.

Image

EURAUD, Daily

Daily chart supports the picture gained from the weekly. The Stochastic Oscillator is entering into overbought territory and EURAUD has reached the resistance area and seems to be creating a shooting star. However, it has also created a slightly higher low above the support at 1.4223 suggesting some underlying strength. At the moment the pair is still in a range mode and therefore might provide opportunities at both ends of the range. At the time of writing we have signs of momentum reversal and we should obviously trade accordingly as long as the pair stays in the range.

Image

EURAUD, 240 min

EURAUD has countered resistance and we are seeing momentum reversal happening. The first potential level for short exits and long entries would be either the weekly high at 1.4440 or the 1.4376 intraday support. This level has recently been acting both as a support and as a resistance. Again, look for hammers to confirm your entries and exits at these levels. Obviously the low end of the range at 1.4223 is another key area.

Conclusion
:

EURAUD has now created a weekly higher low at the beginning of November and I am betting that it will eventually move higher. The pair is currently trying to push through a resistance between 1.4592 and 1.4706 but has encountered resistance and is forming a daily shooting star. If there is a move lower from this resistance I would expect the weekly high of 1.4440 or the 1.4376 intraday support to give the price a new higher low and help it to move higher. We have had some short signals at current levels (the resistance). Should the price move lower I will be focusing on potential buy signals at the weekly high of 1.4440 or at the intraday level of 1.4376. As my medium term bias is on the long side I would be more careful with the short trades and trade the long side with an expectancy of longer lasting moves.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex


https://blog.hotforex.com/rba-worried-about-chinese-property-market/


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MessagePosté: 20 Nov 2014, 16:04 
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RBA worried about Chinese Property Market

According to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Board of Reserve Bank of Australia from 4th November, the bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.5%. This decision was influenced by the worries related to what the bank described as “considerable uncertainty to the outlook for the Chinese property market and the broader implications for the Chinese economy”. This is understandably a major worry to Australia as China is the most important trading partner for the Australians. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth was expected to stay below the trend during the years 2014 and 2015 with some acceleration expected in 2016. Low interest rates support the economic activity, but the spare capacity in the labour force mean that inflationary pressures stay low. The Australian dollar is still overvalued in light of most estimates and according to the bank “the exchange rate was offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy”. Based on the above, the Reserve Bank of Australia, like so many other central banks, would like to see their currency at lower levels. This means that they are not likely to increase interest rates in the foreseeable future. Still, compared to Europe the Australian economy is so much more robust and therefore a better bet from an investment point of view. This and the interest rates differential means that the Australian dollar is likely attract more money than the euro in the long run. However, at the moment we have a short to medium term technical setup that seems to favour the euro.

Image

EURAUD, Weekly

In September the pair found buyers at a historical support from 2011 that coincided with a rising trend line. Since EURAUD has now created a higher low at the beginning of November I am betting that it will eventually move higher. The pair is currently trying to push through a resistance area between 1.4592 and 1.4706. If we will see a move lower from this resistance, I expect the weekly high of 1.4440 (see the daily chart below) to provide support and help to create a new higher low in EURAUD. This in turn would support the view that the pair is indeed going to move higher. Once this resistance area has been penetrated, the next target is a weekly high at 1.5022.

Image

EURAUD, Daily

Daily chart supports the picture gained from the weekly. The Stochastic Oscillator is entering into overbought territory and EURAUD has reached the resistance area and seems to be creating a shooting star. However, it has also created a slightly higher low above the support at 1.4223 suggesting some underlying strength. At the moment the pair is still in a range mode and therefore might provide opportunities at both ends of the range. At the time of writing we have signs of momentum reversal and we should obviously trade accordingly as long as the pair stays in the range.

Image

EURAUD, 240 min

EURAUD has countered resistance and we are seeing momentum reversal happening. The first potential level for short exits and long entries would be either the weekly high at 1.4440 or the 1.4376 intraday support. This level has recently been acting both as a support and as a resistance. Again, look for hammers to confirm your entries and exits at these levels. Obviously the low end of the range at 1.4223 is another key area.

Conclusion:

EURAUD has now created a weekly higher low at the beginning of November and I am betting that it will eventually move higher. The pair is currently trying to push through a resistance between 1.4592 and 1.4706 but has encountered resistance and is forming a daily shooting star. If there is a move lower from this resistance I would expect the weekly high of 1.4440 or the 1.4376 intraday support to give the price a new higher low and help it to move higher. We have had some short signals at current levels (the resistance). Should the price move lower I will be focusing on potential buy signals at the weekly high of 1.4440 or at the intraday level of 1.4376. As my medium term bias is on the long side I would be more careful with the short trades and trade the long side with an expectancy of longer lasting moves.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex

https://blog.hotforex.com/rba-worried-about-chinese-property-market/


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MessagePosté: 21 Nov 2014, 15:54 
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Date : 21st November 2014

EURUSD TRADING SHARPLY LOWER AFTER COMMENTS FROM THE ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI.


EURUSD dropped yesterday and closed at 1.2539. Data released yesterday indicated that the German Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to a level of 50.0 in November. The German Flash Services PMI also dropped to a level of 52.1 in November. The negative tone was also seen in the general releases for the Eurozone where the Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 50.4 and the Flash Services PMI dropped to a level of 51.3 in November.

Image

Data from the United States revealed that the Consumer Price Index in the largest economy in the world remained steady in October coming at 0.0 percent against the market expectations of a drop with -0.1 percent. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Activity was the most surprising release of the day with its reading of 40.8 in November which is a 21-year high level. The Existing Home Sales report from the US added to the positive tone after reaching a level of 5.26M in October.

During his speech today the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi said that the European Central Bank must raise the inflation in the Eurozone as fast as possible and will broaden its asset purchase program if needed. The markets reacted to his speech and the EURUSD dropped sharply.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2412 and resistance is seen at 1.2512.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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MessagePosté: 24 Nov 2014, 16:26 
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Date : 24th November 2014

EURUSD TRADING HIGHER IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE ROSE IN NOVEMBER.


EURUSD dropped sharply in Monday and closed at 1.2390. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi reiterated his previous statement that the central bank is ready to expand its asset purchases if the low inflation continues to persist in the Euro area.

During the weekend the Vice President of the ECB Vitor Constancio stated that the current low inflation is a cause of big concern, but according to him there is no risk of entering a full deflation spiral.

Data released today indicated that the German Ifo Business Climate rose to a reading of 104.7 in November.

A report from BBG released today says that the Troika team and Greek officials are set to meet tomorrow in Paris.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2362 and resistance is seen at 1.2445.

Image

Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

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HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers.


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