VideoBourse

Date: 21st January 2025.

Gold Surges Past Key Resistance Level, Undeterred by Looming Tariffs.


Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

Gold prices have risen to their highest level since November 6th, nearing a full correction from the post-election decline. In recent months, analysts have made clear predictions regarding the price of Gold rising to $3,000 in the first half of 2025. This prediction took a hit after the US elections triggered a 6.50% rise in the US Dollar. Is a $3,000 target possible?

How Does Trump Influence Gold?

The focus of the market over the past week has been the influence of a Trump Presidency on tradable assets. So far in January 2025, the price of gold has risen by more than 4.00%. This suggests that investors are confident Trump will not negatively impact gold in the medium to long term. However, investors are also considering the possibility of higher import duties on nearly all goods entering the United States, particularly from Canada, Mexico, and China.



These measures could disrupt global supply chains if these countries choose to retaliate. As a result, the Federal Reserve may cut less in 2025 and the US Dollar may increase further. This is the market’s main concern and could potentially pressure Gold prices lower. In 2018, during the previous “trade wars”, Gold prices fell for 6-consecutive months. However, many economists believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting on 3 occasions. If this does transpire, the price of Gold will be supported further.

Trump did not give any concrete signals on tariffs during his speech. The Republican administration seems likely to focus on targeted tariff increases, particularly on critical imports such as electric vehicles. Tesla Stocks are already trading 0.50% higher before the market opens.

UCFTC Gold Report And Influential Factors

The US Commodities Future Trading Commission also confirms the increase in demand via order flow analysis. The Commission’s data shows net speculative positions rose to 279.4K from 254.9K last week. Buyers have been actively forming positions, with their balance reaching 221.6K compared to 9.1K for sellers. Last week, buyers added 14.9K contracts, while sellers reduced theirs by 3.1K, reflecting strong confidence in the continued upward trend of XAU/USD.

When monitoring external factors and its influence on the price of Gold, traders will most likely continue to monitor Bond Yields, Earnings Reports and the US Dollar. Currently, lower bond yields are supporting Gold prices but this is something investors will need to continue monitoring. Gold prices may also potentially benefit from weaker earnings data to a certain extent. The most volatile day this week will most likely be on Friday as the Bank of Japan confirms its Interest rate decision and global economies release their PMI reports.

Gold’s Performance - Technical Analysis.

The price of Gold this morning is trading 0.75% higher than its open price. The retracement seen during the previous week was weaker than the average retracement size seen over the past 30-days indicating the momentum of the bullish price movement. The average bullish impulse wave measures 2.75% and the current impulse wave reads 1.49%. Therefore, if the asset was to continue similar price movements, the price potentially could rise to $2,763. However, this would depend on how upcoming events influence the price.



Currently, technical analysis is providing a bullish bias as the asset breaks through the resistance level seen on a daily timeframe. In addition to this, the price trades above all Moving Averages and Cumulative Delta Statistics show higher volume in favour of buy orders. For this reason, the asset is witnessing bullish signals. However, if the price declines or retraces, traders should be cautious, as the bullish trend may regain momentum when the price approaches the 200-Period Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe.

Key Takeaways:

* Gold prices have risen to their highest level since November 6th.
* Last week, buyers added 14.9K contracts, while sellers reduced theirs by 3.1K, reflecting strong confidence in the continued upward trend of XAU/USD.
* Currently, technical analysis is providing a bullish bias as the asset breaks through the resistance level seen on Gold’s daily timeframe
* Economists believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting on 3 occasions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd January 2025.

Netflix Earnings Surge Driving the NASDAQ to Monthly Highs!


Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, gaining momentum after Netflix stocks rise more than 15%. Earnings reports are gaining speed for the technology sector, but why has Netflix stocks seen such a high and sudden rise in demand?

Netflix Stocks Increase 15% Supporting the NASDAQ!

Netflix stocks have been one of the best-performing stocks within the NASDAQ, rising more than 79% in 12 months. However, even for Netflix, a 15% rise in less than 24 hours is considered substantial. The quarterly earnings report was made public by Netflix after the market closed on Tuesday. The earnings report confirmed the following:

1. Netflix beat their earnings per share expectations - $4.27 reported vs $4.21 expectations.
2. Netflix’s revenue surpasses the previous quarter - $10.25 billion this quarter vs $9.82 billion in the previous quarter.
3. The online streaming company confirms projects to expand into live sport and event streaming will proceed. In addition to this, the company’s forward guidance for 2025 remains positive.

Netflix is the 10th most influential company for the NASDAQ meaning the positive earnings data and bullish price movement supports the overall price of the NASDAQ. In addition to this, the positive earnings improve the sentiment towards the entire US technology sector. Investors will now turn their attention to the quarterly earnings report for Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical stocks on Tuesday rose 1.94%.

How is the Economy And Politics Affecting the NASDAQ?



The US stock market is witnessing an upward correction after struggling in the last weeks of 2024. The bullish price movement is a result of a sharp decline in bond yields, the new US administration and earnings season. Investors remain relieved that bond yields have fallen back down from the 5.00% level. If bond yields continue to decline further, particularly below 4.50%, the move would be deemed as positive for the US stock market.

President Trump took office on Monday and so far the pro-US rhetoric from the President, Vice President and Secretary of State continues to support the stock market. So far, the main concern is how upcoming tariffs can negatively affect inflation and growth. However, some economists advise tariffs will become the “norm” and may have a lesser effect compared to 2018. However, this is something traders will continue to evaluate and monitor.

The VIX this morning fell 0.83% lower and trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days. The lower VIX indicates a higher risk appetite towards the stock market. If the VIX continues to decline a strong buy indication may materialize.

On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. However, Apple stocks, the most impactful stock, fell 3.19% due to poor sell data. If Apple stocks continue to decline, the NASDAQ’s upward trend may come under strain. In the meantime, investors over the next week will continue to monitor upcoming earnings reports.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

The price of the index is trading significantly higher than all Moving Averages on a 2-hour timeframe and relatively high on oscillators. These factors indicate that buyers are controlling the order book. However, price action also confirms the latest impulse wave measures 3.43% which is normally the point at which the index retraces. This is something that investors may also consider.

The retracement potentially also may be triggered by Netflix buyers quickly selling to cash in profit after the sudden 15% bullish surge. If a retracement does indeed form, price action and the 75-period EMA indicates that the pullback may drop as low as $21,391.30.



Key Takeaways:

* The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, but price action signals a possible retracement before continuing its bullish trend.
* Netflix stocks increase more than 15% due to strong earnings data.
* Netflix beat earnings and revenue expectations by 1.39% and confirmed projects to add live sports streaming to its platforms.
* The VIX trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days and US Bond Yields remain at recent lows.
* On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd January 2025.

How Low Can Oil Prices Fall After Renewed Downward Pressure?


Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

Since Donald Trump became President of the US, Crude Oil prices have fallen 3.70% retracing back from the 27-week high. Analysts still believe the price of oil per barrel will fall under the Trump presidency, as per previous statements. President Trump himself previously stated he wants oil priced closer to $45 per barrel. However, how long can oil prices fall and how quickly?

What’s Driving Oil Prices Lower?



Investors are closely watching the next steps of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Yesterday, Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese exports, scaling back from the 100% tariff he promised during his campaign. This news has reassured investors, but experts caution that this move could be just the beginning. Over time, the U.S. may increase pressure on its top economic rival, potentially slowing the Chinese economy and reducing its energy demand.

China is currently the largest importer of Crude Oil followed by the US, India and Japan. Therefore, a poorer economic outlook for China can pressure oil prices in 2025. The performance of the Chinese economy will also depend on the 10% tariffs and if these will indeed rise over time.

The US President is also attempting to create an imbalance between supply and demand in order to pressure prices lower. On the President's first day he launched significant changes to the US’s energy policy, reversing restrictions on coastal oil field development imposed by the former President. Trump also advocated for boosting oil production at existing fields and declared a national energy emergency, aiming to attract investment in the mining sector and bolster the US oil reserves. If Trump is successfully able to considerably increase supply, the price of Crude Oil is likely to come under pressure. Only if demand equally improves will supply-demand imbalances be avoided.

Meanwhile, a sharp drop in oil prices is being mitigated by poor weather conditions along the Gulf Coast, which could disrupt production in key high oil-producing countries. Although, this is not likely to continue in the medium to long term. The Middle East and high-producing countries in recent years have aimed to keep oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel. Therefore, traders will also monitor if these countries will look to structure countermeasures to reduce the downward pressure. For example, by reducing production levels.

How Low can Crude Oil Prices Fall?

The average price of oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel, $5 (-5.60%) lower than the current price. However, the average price of this period takes into consideration the oil crisis from 2022 where prices rose above $100. More realistic support levels can be seen at $62 per barrel. The price has found support at this level in 2021, 2023 and 2024.



Some economists, such as Tom Kloza, suggest that Crude Oil could potentially drop to $40 per barrel. This would occur if OPEC nations decide to reverse previous production cuts. However, most economists believe it's more realistic to expect Crude oil prices to drop between $54 to $62 per barrel in the medium to long term. Other organizations, such as the US Energy Information Administration believe oil will only drop to $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel. According to the EIA, their predictions, which are higher than most, are due to strong economic activity.

In terms of indications and technical analysis, most point towards a downward trend. The price of Crude Oil is currently trading below most trendlines and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. In addition to this, Oscillators such as the RSI and MACD also indicate sellers are controlling the price movement. However, Crude Oil Traders should note this outlook may change if the price gains bullish momentum above $76.38.

Key Takeaways:

* President Trump aims to bring Crude Oil prices back down closer to $40 per barrel.
* Trump is driving a supply-demand imbalance to lower prices, starting with reversing oil field restrictions.
* Economist Tom Kloza suggests Crude Oil could drop to $40 per barrel if OPEC reverses previous production cuts.
* Most economists believe oil prices will fall to between $54 to $62.
* The average price of Crude Oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd January 2025.

How Low Can Oil Prices Fall After Renewed Downward Pressure?

Since Donald Trump became President of the US, Crude Oil prices have fallen 3.70% retracing back from the 27-week high. Analysts still believe the price of oil per barrel will fall under the Trump presidency, as per previous statements. President Trump himself previously stated he wants oil priced closer to $45 per barrel. However, how long can oil prices fall and how quickly?

What’s Driving Oil Prices Lower?



Investors are closely watching the next steps of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Yesterday, Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese exports, scaling back from the 100% tariff he promised during his campaign. This news has reassured investors, but experts caution that this move could be just the beginning. Over time, the U.S. may increase pressure on its top economic rival, potentially slowing the Chinese economy and reducing its energy demand.

China is currently the largest importer of Crude Oil followed by the US, India and Japan. Therefore, a poorer economic outlook for China can pressure oil prices in 2025. The performance of the Chinese economy will also depend on the 10% tariffs and if these will indeed rise over time.

The US President is also attempting to create an imbalance between supply and demand in order to pressure prices lower. On the President's first day he launched significant changes to the US’s energy policy, reversing restrictions on coastal oil field development imposed by the former President. Trump also advocated for boosting oil production at existing fields and declared a national energy emergency, aiming to attract investment in the mining sector and bolster the US oil reserves. If Trump is successfully able to considerably increase supply, the price of Crude Oil is likely to come under pressure. Only if demand equally improves will supply-demand imbalances be avoided.

Meanwhile, a sharp drop in oil prices is being mitigated by poor weather conditions along the Gulf Coast, which could disrupt production in key high oil-producing countries. Although, this is not likely to continue in the medium to long term. The Middle East and high-producing countries in recent years have aimed to keep oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel. Therefore, traders will also monitor if these countries will look to structure countermeasures to reduce the downward pressure. For example, by reducing production levels.

How Low can Crude Oil Prices Fall?

The average price of oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel, $5 (-5.60%) lower than the current price. However, the average price of this period takes into consideration the oil crisis from 2022 where prices rose above $100. More realistic support levels can be seen at $62 per barrel. The price has found support at this level in 2021, 2023 and 2024.



Some economists, such as Tom Kloza, suggest that Crude Oil could potentially drop to $40 per barrel. This would occur if OPEC nations decide to reverse previous production cuts. However, most economists believe it's more realistic to expect Crude oil prices to drop between $54 to $62 per barrel in the medium to long term. Other organizations, such as the US Energy Information Administration believe oil will only drop to $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel. According to the EIA, their predictions, which are higher than most, are due to strong economic activity.

In terms of indications and technical analysis, most point towards a downward trend. The price of Crude Oil is currently trading below most trendlines and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. In addition to this, Oscillators such as the RSI and MACD also indicate sellers are controlling the price movement. However, Crude Oil Traders should note this outlook may change if the price gains bullish momentum above $76.38.

Key Takeaways:

* President Trump aims to bring Crude Oil prices back down closer to $40 per barrel.
* Trump is driving a supply-demand imbalance to lower prices, starting with reversing oil field restrictions.
* Economist Tom Kloza suggests Crude Oil could drop to $40 per barrel if OPEC reverses previous production cuts.
* Most economists believe oil prices will fall to between $54 to $62.
* The average price of Crude Oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th January 2025.

The BoJ Hikes, But JPY Struggles To Maintain Momentum!


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The Bank of Japan has shocked the market by hiking 0.25%, the highest hike in 18 years. Despite the boost from the interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen remains far from being one of the day's top-performing currencies. Traders consider whether the outlook for the Japanese Yen is likely to change in 2025?



EURJPY - Mixed Performance After the Bank Of Japan Increased Rates!

The EURJPY only traded 0.10% lower during this morning’s Asian Session, which may seem unimportant. However, the EURJPY has fallen 0.50% since the Bank of Japan’s rate decision was made public. Investors are considering if the EURJPY will see a change in trend and decline downwards after increasing in value throughout the week. Technical analysts advise even though the Japanese Yen may perform well in 2025, the currency may struggle in the short term.

In terms of economic and monetary policy influences the EURJPY potentially can come under pressure and move in favor of the JPY. This is mainly due to the market expecting the European Central Bank to cut 100-basis points in 2025. In addition to this, economists also believe the Bank of Japan will hike again in the second quarter. However, many traders believe the Japanese Yen may not see gains imminently or in the short term. Particularly, as both the French and German PMI data rose above previous expectations.



Bank of Japan - How High Will Rates Rise?

The Bank of Japan decided to adjust interest rates by 0.25%. The central bank's policy rate rose from 0.25% to 0.50% bringing the rate to a 17-year high. The hike is an important move for the Bank of Japan as it is the first time they have hiked 0.25% since 2007. Of the 9 members who voted on interest rates, 8 voted to hike and only 1 voted against.

The rate decision is known to be positive for the JPY, but the press conference that followed also provided further support. Governor Ueda’s forward guidance on inflation and the economic outlook was largely positive. Amongst the positive tone were the Governor’s insights into the wage negotiations.

Last year, Japanese companies agreed to a 5.1% wage increase, the largest in 30 years. It was for this reason, the Bank of Japan was able to go from negative interest rates to where we are today. The Bank of Japan’s interest rates had been at 0.00% or lower, since 2010. For 2025, the trade union is pushing for at least a 5% hike overall and a 6% increase for smaller companies to reduce income gaps with larger firms. The Governor stated that these negotiations are progressing smoothly and that companies are likely to continue to increase wages.

The governor also advised the costs of imports are increasing due to a weak Japanese Yen and indicated that this is something the Central Bank wishes to correct. The Governor said the central bank would like rates to rise to the neutral range. However, this range is normally known to be between 1% and 2.5%. In the upcoming weeks, investors will be attempting to determine how high rates can go over the upcoming months.

EURJPY - Strong European PMI Data Supports the Euro!

The EURJPY exchange rate will also largely depend on the EUR and the European Central Bank. The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on the 30th. Economists expect the ECB to cut 0.25% and indicate a full 1.00% cut in 2025. The bearishness of the ECB will also be a key factor in the pricing of the EURJPY.

The Euro is the best performing currency of the day after obtaining further support from the French and German PMI release. The French Services PMI read 45.3, higher than the 42.4 expectations. German Services and Manufacturing PMI also rose above expectations and read higher than the previous month. Below traders can view today’s analysis of today's PMI reports.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos amongst other bankers was José Luis Escriva, Governor of the Spanish Central Bank. Mr Escriva emphasized that the ECB should tailor its policy to remain neutral, neither slowing nor stimulating economic growth. He also stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility amid geopolitical uncertainty and adapting to new developments. However, most European bankers have warned that tariffs from the US would result in a pause.

Key Takeaways:

* The Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 0.25%, the strongest hikes in 18 years.
* The BoJ Governor advises wages in Japan will rise in 2025 and a weak JPY is triggering inflation.
* German Services and Manufacturing PMI also rose above expectations and read higher than the previous month.
* The Euro is the best-performing currency of the day after obtaining support from strong PMI data from Germany and France.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th January 2025.

Mild Risk-Off Sentiment: Stocks Slide, Yen Gains, and Bitcoin Dips Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Anticipation.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asia & European Sessions:

* European stock market indexes are lower in early trade, after a mixed session in Asia, where concern over the weaponization of tariffs and a possible tech shakeup put mainly China bourses on the back foot.
* Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Colombia, citing the country’s refusal to accept military flights carrying deported migrants, prompted Bogotá to threaten retaliatory measures. However, the White House later announced Colombia had agreed to accept the flights, defusing immediate tensions. Trump also signalled potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1.
* The Hang Seng is up 0.6%, while the Nikkei dropped as central bank action remains in focus and the yen rallied. DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.2% and 0.4% respectively in early trade and a -2.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower.
* Bonds meanwhile are rallying as risk aversion picks up.
* The Yen rose against the US dollar during Asian trading hours, as investors sought its safety amidst concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff. On Friday, the yen briefly climbed 0.8% after the BOJ raised its policy rate to the highest level since 2008 but later retreated. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the central bank would maintain rate hikes as wage and price growth broadened but gave few hints on the pace of future increases.
* Bitcoin saw a sharp decline as traders took profits just days followed Trump’s Friday announcement of a long-anticipated executive order establishing a working group to guide the White House on cryptocurrency policy. This group has been tasked with drafting a regulatory framework for digital assets within six months, while also exploring the idea of creating a national crypto stockpile.
* Earnings reports from over 100 S&P500 companies will dominate headlines, featuring major players like Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). Wednesday is shaping up to be the busiest day, with additional reports from Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM), and Chevron (CVX).
* The Federal Reserve will also be in focus on Wednesday, announcing its latest policy decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for clues about monetary policy for the rest of 2025.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is little changed at 107.40. Expectations of widespread tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico have fueled inflation fears, driving US Treasury yields higher and bolstering the dollar.
* The USDJPY traded at 155.88 after the BOJ raised rates and revised inflation forecasts higher.
* The Mexican peso, often sensitive to tariff news, fell 0.7% to 20.409 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar weakened to 1.4385 per dollar.
* The euro edged down 0.2% to $1.0455 ahead of an ECB meeting expected to lower borrowing costs. The British pound traded lower at $1.2428.
* Bitcoin slipped below $98,300. Other tokens like Solana and Cardano, which had surged following Trump’s election victory, experienced even steeper losses, according to Bloomberg data.
* Oil prices are down -0.4% at $74.28 per barrel.
* Gold is down -0.6% at a still-high $2753.80 per ounce.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th January 2025.

Market Recap: Treasury Yields Rise as Tech Stocks Rebound.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asia & European Sessions:

* Markets had largely recovered from Monday’s selloff triggered by fears over AI competition from China’s DeepSeek. Dip buyers took advantage of the NASDAQ’s sharp decline, leading to a rebound of 2.03%, which erased much of Monday’s 3.07% drop. The S&P500 climbed 0.92% after shedding 1.46% the previous day, while the Dow inched up 0.31%.
* Asian stocks and European equity futures increased following Wall Street’s tech-driven recovery. Japanese, Australian, and Indian markets saw gains, though many regional exchanges remained closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.
* Nvidia regained nearly half of its 17% plunge, which had marked the largest single-day market cap loss in history.
* As investor anxiety eased, the VIX volatility index dropped 8.66% to 16.35, after briefly touching 21 on Monday.
* Positive earnings from Visa, Royal Caribbean, and Boeing helped lift sentiment, though JetBlue and General Motors disappointed.
* Market attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech firms. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates unchanged at a 4.375% mid-range, taking a pause after three consecutive easings totalling -100 bps since the jumbo -50 bps in September. The resilient economy and still sticky inflation do not give the Fed room to credibly continue with its policy course. And we do not expect any surprises from Chair Powell's press conference where he should stress the economy remains solid, with risks to inflation and employment generally in balance.
* Upcoming earnings: Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, IBM, ASML, ADP and Apple on Thursday.



Financial Markets Performance:

* USOIL rose 0.97% to $73.50 per barrel, while gold climbed 0.88% to $2,764 per ounce.
* Aussie weakened, while 3-year bond yields dropped 5 bps on expectations of monetary easing. Australia’s core inflation cooled more than expected in the Q4 2024, prompting speculation that the RBA may soon pivot to rate cuts.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 03rd February 2025.

What do Trump's Tariffs Mean for the Financial Trading Markets?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The announcement of the first Trump tariffs sends volatility through the roof. The market’s first reaction is to sell stocks and buy the US Dollar. The first countries to be hit by tariffs are Canada, Mexico and China. However, the US President also gave interesting indications on the government’s next moves.

SNP500 - Tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico Send Stocks Lower!

The SNP500 opens on a bearish price gap measuring 1.54% but trades 1.76% lower than Friday’s close. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in risk appetite from tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The VIX, a risk sentiment indicator, is up over 8%, reflecting the fall in market confidence.



Today’s sharp decline is one of the strongest seen in 2025 so far, but up to now remains weaker than the 2.95% decline from January 27th. The previous decline was due to the global repercussions of Chinese AI companies gaining momentum. However, this recent decline indicates that today’s downward trend may still gain momentum when the European and US sessions open.

The only concern for traders is the price is trading close to the SNP500’s recent support level. The SNP500’s support level at $5,920 in the previous week triggered an upward correction, partially fueled by earnings data. Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report tomorrow after market close and Amazon on Thursday. Therefore, traders should be cautious that while the downward risk remains great, the earnings data may prompt demand similar to the week before.

China has also made a statement advising they are currently working on a trade proposal with the US in order to avoid tariffs. If an announcement is made indicating an agreement with China, the SNP500 could potentially gain bullish momentum. However, no such announcement has yet been made.

The US 10-ear Bond Yields increase in value during the Asian session and the VIX index continues to rise as the European session edges closer. If bond yields and the VIX continue to increase throughout the day, the bearish bias is likely to strengthen. According to price action and price momentum indicators, the SNP500 is likely to witness sell signals at $5,924 and below.

Euro - The Day’s Worst Performing Currency!

The Euro is coming under pressure due to Trump’s latest interview as he was walking off Airforce One. President Donald Trump commented on the first tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, but also said that tariffs “will definitely happen with the European Union”. Whereas, with the UK he was less concrete in his response. With the UK Trump advised there will likely be tariffs but they “may be able to work” something out.

In terms of the European economy, December retail sales dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) and slowed from 2.9% to 1.8% year-over-year (YoY). This reinforces the expectations of further interest rate adjustments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In the Eurozone’s largest economy, conditions for this shift are in place, as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth weakens due to sluggish demand and lower household activity.



Additionally, Bank of Finland head Olli Rehn and Bank of Estonia governor Madis Müller emphasized the priority of a dovish policy stance in his speech on Friday. The Euro is currently the worst-performing currency of the day.

The US Dollar - Safe Haven Status Increases Investor Demand!

The US Dollar is currently the best performing currency due to its safe haven status. The USD Index is currently trading 1.25% higher and is the only currency index witnessing gains. The currency is witnessing the strongest gains against the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar.

Consumer inflation in the country remains well above the 2.0% target, and some analysts believe it has stabilized at this higher level, raising the chances of a pause in monetary easing. This is likely to continue supporting the US Dollar, particularly if this week’s employment data beats expectations.



Key Takeaways:

* Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China sparks a sharp market decline, with the S&P 500 down by 1.76% and risk appetite falling.
As the US 10-year bond yields increase and the VIX climbs, bearish momentum strengthens, signaling further declines in the S&P 500.
* The Euro weakens after Trump hints at potential tariffs on the European Union, with December retail sales and ECB policies adding to downward pressure.
* The US Dollar benefits from its safe haven status, rising 1.25% as investors seek stability amid tariff-related uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th February 2025.

The British Pound Remains Resilient Amid USD Strength!


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

This week, the Great British Pound is one of the best-performing currencies against the US Dollar. The US Dollar saw strong gains during Monday’s Asian session but was unable to maintain momentum due to Trump pausing tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Why is the GBP performing better than the Euro and other currencies?



Why Is The British Pound Holding Strong Against The Dollar?

The British Pound is strengthening due to President Trump's favourable stance toward the UK. Economists advise the UK is still at risk of tariffs in the next 4-years, but are not likely to be imminent. President Trump has announced tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been postponed but stated Tariffs on the EU are almost certain. Therefore, the GBP has benefited from being left out of President Trump’s blacklist for now.

Therefore, the GBP’s bearish price movement is weaker than that seen amongst other currency pairs. The GBP index this week is trading 0.22% lower but is still performing better than other currencies. The worst-performing currency of the past week is the Euro and the JPY is the best-performing along with the GBP. Economists advise the GBP may be able to benefit from global tariffs being put on partners as long as the US does not impose tariffs on the UK.

In addition to this, the price movement of the Pound will also depend on monetary policy. The Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday at 14:00 (GMT+2). The regulator is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%. This decision is driven by inflation concerns linked to the US Republican administration's trade policies. As a result, the GBP is also gaining support from the BoE, which remains cautious about reducing rates too quickly. In December, consumer prices rose 2.5% year-on-year, below analysts' expectations, nearing the 2.0% target.

Meanwhile, the services CPI dropped sharply from 5.0% to 4.4%. However, rising energy costs could drive inflation higher. Additionally, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' decision to raise employers' National Insurance contributions, along with minimum wage indexation, has increased labour costs. This could, in turn, impact household spending.

Why Did the US Dollar Lose Momentum?

The gains seen during Monday’s Asian Session were in response to tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. However, tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been put on hold as both nations have said they are willing to provide 10,000 soldiers at their borders to stop drug trafficking and immigration. As the pause was announced, the US Dollar started to retreat as traders took advantage of the higher price to cash in their profits.

Experts now point out that the tariff increases will impact half of all imports. Reducing reliance on external suppliers would require doubling domestic production, an unfeasible goal in the short term, potentially leading to a significant rise in consumer prices.

As a result, Federal Reserve officials may be compelled to maintain the current policy for an extended period. Depending on inflation, the Fed may even consider tightening the policy if inflation rises. Against this backdrop, analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. President Trump acknowledged the potential negative effects of his actions but expressed confidence that no drastic consequences would occur.

GBPUSD - Forecasts and Technical Analysis!

The fundamental outlook for the UK is not likely to change this week, but for the US Dollar, the latest developments will likely change on a daily basis. Particularly, investors will be focusing on further comments on Tariffs, earnings data and this week’s employment data. If earnings data from Alphabet and Amazon are weaker than expectations and trigger a lower risk appetite, the US Dollar as a safe haven asset may increase in value.

Investors will also monitor this week’s JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, Salary Growth and NFP Employment Change. If the employment data again reads higher than the current expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely be less tempted to cut interest rates any time soon. Consequently, the GBPUSD may fall as the BoE simultaneously cuts interest rates for the first time in 2025.

If the price falls below 1.23777, the exchange rate will form a breakout and drop below most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. In addition to this, with a bearish momentum of 0.32%, the decline is also likely to bring the RSI below the 50.00 level. If this materialises, the price may witness a bearish signal pointing towards further declines.

Key Takeaways:

* The US Dollar loses momentum after Trump puts tariffs on Canada and Mexico on hold.
* Tariffs in the UK are not likely in the near future but remain at risk for the next 4-years. The EU is likely to see tariffs imposed upon them.
* The Bank of England is likely to cut 0.25% basis points on Thursday.
* Analysts have lowered their expectations for two interest rate cuts this year to 54.0%.
If the GBPUSD drops below 1.23777, it will trigger a breakout and prompt a bearish signal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th February 2025.

Stock Market Drops as US-China Trade War Escalates; Gold Hits Record High.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Futures for US and European stocks retreated, shrugging off gains in Asian markets as investors assessed the latest earnings from Wall Street tech giants and growing concerns over the US-China trade war.

Gold prices soared to an all-time high, continuing a nearly 1% rally from the previous session, as escalating trade tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets.

Global Stock Market Performance

* Euro Stoxx 50 futures declined 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.5%, weighed down by post-market declines in Alphabet Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
* Asian stock markets advanced for a second straight session, though Chinese equities fell as the market reopened after the Lunar New Year holiday.
* The yen strengthened against the US dollar, while gold surged on increased risk aversion.

Tech Stocks and Trade War Concerns

Asian technology stocks mirrored their US counterparts’ gains, but investor sentiment toward China remained cautious. Markets reacted to Beijing’s swift but measured retaliation after the US imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China. Compared to the aggressive tit-for-tat measures during Trump’s first term, President Xi Jinping appears to be taking a more calculated approach.

US Jobs Report and Federal Reserve Rate Policy

* The US 10-year Treasury yield declined alongside the US dollar index, after data revealed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings for December, hitting a three-month low.
* The weaker US labour market data reduced fears of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing the US dollar lower and creating a favourable setup for Asian markets.
* Investors now turn to the US ISM services report for further clues on the Fed’s rate policy, with analysts expecting a slowdown in activity due to winter storms and wildfires.

Trump Signals No Urgency for US-China Trade Talks

President Donald Trump told reporters he’s in no rush to negotiate with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating that he’ll engage in discussions “at the appropriate time.”

Market analysts are concerned that prolonged uncertainty over trade negotiations could lead to increased stock market volatility, especially in China. Despite the delays in trade talks, Trump has shown that he is willing to negotiate, so markets will continue to watch closely.

In a surprising move, the US Postal Service temporarily suspended international shipments from China and Hong Kong. While the reason remains unclear, the suspension follows Trump’s repeal of the de minimis rule, which previously allowed small Chinese shipments under $800 to enter the US duty-free.

US-China trade tensions remain a major market risk and if both sides delay their tariff measures, markets will respond positively, but further escalation could trigger renewed volatility.

Gold Prices Surge as Investors Seek Safe Havens

* Gold prices skyrocketed to a record high of $2,861 an ounce, fueled by concerns over trade disputes, geopolitical instability, and potential inflation risks.
* Beijing’s measured response to US tariffs was notably softer than its previous retaliatory actions, yet investors remain cautious about its long-term effects on global trade and monetary policy.
* Adding to market uncertainty, Trump proposed a US-led reconstruction plan for Gaza, further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The gold market is benefiting from rising geopolitical risks, including US-China trade uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of US dollar movements, gold demand remains strong.



US Dollar Weakens Amid Market Uncertainty

* The US dollar continued to weaken, extending Tuesday’s 0.7% drop following disappointing US jobs data.
* A weaker dollar generally boosts gold and commodity prices, making them more affordable for international buyers.
* Spot gold gained 0.7%, trading at $2,861.22 per ounce as of 6:29 a.m. in London. Meanwhile, silver and platinum also advanced, while palladium declined.

Even before the latest US-China tariffs, the precious metals market was experiencing heightened volatility.

* Gold and silver prices in the US surged above international benchmarks, leading to a rush of large-scale shipments into the country ahead of potential tariffs.
* The uncertainty also caused a spike in lease rates for gold and silver, as traders scrambled to secure short-term loans for metals stored in London vaults.
* Crude oil prices slipped, as global growth concerns stemming from the trade war overshadowed the impact of new US sanctions on Iran.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th February 2025.

Analysts Expect the BoE To Cut GDP Forecasts and Raise Inflation Projections!


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

At 12:00 GMT, the Bank of England will reveal its latest rate decision, with economists anticipating some changes. Analysts expect the changes to spark volatility in the Great British Pound and the FTSE100 throughout the day. Currently, the GBP Index is trading lower, but what can traders expect from the BoE and what will it mean for the British Pound?

What to Expect from the Bank of England?

Analysts predict officials will lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% and downgrade economic growth forecasts, signaling a continued “dovish” stance. Overall, borrowing costs could decrease by 85 basis points this year. Today’s interest rate cut will be the UK’s first rate adjustment since September 2024. The interest rate decision itself will have a limited effect on the GBP as the adjustment has already been priced in the market.

The price movement will largely depend on the Bank of England's adjustments to their predictions for GDP in 2025, inflation expectations and the Monetary Policy committee votes. Analysts expect the committee to have eight members vote for rate cuts and one to vote for a pause. Even if one member votes for a different adjustment, the GBP may experience higher volatility.

The Bank of England may also amend their expectations for 2025 to indicate lower growth and higher inflation. Many UK economists believe the BoE will cut the UK’s Gross Domestic Product projections from 1.5% to 1.00%. Higher inflation is also likely to be a key part of today’s BoE press conference as higher national insurance contributions are likely to trigger higher inflation and lower consumer demand.

GBPUSD - The US Dollar On the Round?

The British Pound is not witnessing any significant decline in value as the Bank of England rate decision approaches. However, the GBP Index is trading 0.25% lower largely due to the US Dollar which is rebounding after declining for 3-days. The price movement of the US Dollar will largely depend on tomorrow’s employment data and any further decisions on tariffs.



President Donald Trump approved a 25.0% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods starting on February 1st, but implementation was delayed after agreements were reached. Canada and Mexico reportedly committed to stricter border controls. Markets have since shifted focus to potential tariffs on EU imports, though no decisions have been made.

In response, the European Commission announced plans for retaliatory measures, despite the risk of worsening global trade conditions. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analysts revised their monetary policy forecast, now expecting just one 25-basis-point rate cut instead of two. They believe Trump's tariff policies will drive inflation higher, limiting further adjustments in the near term.

Any statements or decisions on tariffs are likely to spark volatility and may benefit the US Dollar. The same applies to tomorrow’s employment data: NFP Employment Change, Salary Growth and the US Unemployment Rate. If the data indicate a stable and resilient employment sector, the US Dollar can rise further. Currently, the US 10-Year Treasury trades 17 points higher which can also support the USD if the yields continue to rise throughout the day.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis

The price of the exchange rate (GBPUSD) is trading downwards towards the main trendlines and the average price. The current bearish swing has corrected the previous impulse wave and the GBPUSD now trades at the support level. If the price drops below the previous low at 1.24613, the price movement would indicate a potential change in trend in favour of the Dollar. However, this would also depend on the BoE, NFP and tariffs.

Key Takeaways:

* The BoE is set to cut rates to 4.50%, with possible GDP and inflation downgrades for the UK.
* GBP and FTSE100 volatility hinges on BoE statements, policy votes, and 2025 projections. The GBP index trades lower as the US Dollar regains momentum.
* The USD rebounds after a three-day dip, driven by potential tariffs and NFP data.
* If the GBPUSD drops below 1.24613 could signal a bearish shift.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th February 2025.

Global Currency Market Analysis: Key Drivers and NFP's Impact.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar have performed well throughout the week. However, today, the US will release the NFP Employment Change, Average Salary Growth, and Unemployment Rate. As a result, most currencies are likely to witness high volatility throughout today’s US session.

US Dollar

The US Dollar may seem like the worst-performing currency of the week. However, traders should note on Monday the currency opened on a gap measuring more than 1%. Therefore, the US Dollar is only trading 0.60% lower this week and that can easily change with the release of today’s NFP data.

Analysts expect the Non-Farm Payroll figure to read 169,000 which is lower than the 256,000 from the previous month, but more or less, at the average of the past 6 months. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.1% and the Average Salary Growth at 0.3%. If the NFP data reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar can quickly increase in value. Particularly, if the unemployment rate falls to 4.00%.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that higher trade tariffs could drive inflation. Fed Vice Chair Mr Jefferson added that interest rates should stay unchanged until the full effects of Trump's policies. Mr Jefferson is mainly focusing on the effects of tariffs, immigration, and taxes.

British Pound

The British Pound was the worst-performing currency of the day on Thursday due to pressure from the Bank of England. The downward pressure came from the Monetary Policy Committee. Two members of the board, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra, supported the adjustment of the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points. Previously, analysts expected only 1 vote. In addition to this, no member took a hawkish stance which also put pressure on the GBP.

The Bank of England also made adjustments to the UK Gross Domestic Product to illustrate a weaker outlook. Analysts also expect inflation to rise in the UK due to increases in national insurance contributions. For this reason, many traders currently hold a bearish bias towards the GBP. The current support level for the GBPUSD can be seen at 1.23567 which is currently 0.65% lower than the current price. However, the exchange rate will mainly be driven by the US Dollar throughout the day.



Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the week adding more than 2.10% to the JPY Index. The main price driver pushing the JPY higher is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and recent hawkish comments.

Bank of Japan member Mr Tamura stated that the BoJ should raise interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of 2025. He cited ongoing inflation risks, with companies continuing to pass rising raw material and labour costs onto consumers. Tamura warned that if short-term interest rates stay below the neutral level, inflation will likely accelerate further.

The hawkish comments continue to positively influence the Japanese Yen, the best-performing currency of 2025 so far. Many investors are looking to increase their exposure to the Yen, attracted by its safe-haven status and its current low value, which remains 14% below its 2022 level. Check out which Japanese Yen pairs are tradable here!



Key Takeaway points:

* Top Currencies: The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar led the week, but US NFP data may shake up rankings.
* US Dollar: Despite a mixed performance, a strong NFP report could reverse losses, especially if unemployment drops to 4.0%.
* British Pound Pressure: The BoE's dovish stance and GDP outlook weighed on the GBP, with traders maintaining a bearish bias.
* Japanese Yen Strength: Hawkish BoJ comments and inflation concerns fueled a 2.10% JPY rally, attracting investors seeking a safe-haven asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th February 2025.

Market Update: Tariffs, Inflation, and Investor Sentiment Shape Global Markets.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian equities and US stock index futures experienced declines. At the same time, gold surged to a record high, reflecting investor caution following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminium. Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China faced selling pressure, contributing to a regional downturn. Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Euro Stoxx 50 also traded lower. Meanwhile, Japanese markets remained closed due to a public holiday.

Gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset duringeconomic uncertainty, extended its rally for a third consecutive session, briefly surpassing $2,942 before paring some gains. The US dollar index maintained its Monday gains, signalling sustained strength amid market volatility. The precious metal has surged about 11% this year, setting successive records as Trump’s disruptive moves on trade and geopolitics reinforce its role as a store of value in uncertain times.

US Steel and Metals Sector Reacts to Tariffs

Shares of US Steel Corporation surged as much as 6% following Trump’s announcement, as domestic metals producers saw a boost from the prospect of increased business and stronger pricing power. Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, the top steel suppliers to the US, are expected to be significantly impacted by these trade restrictions.

Trump stated that the new tariffs, effective in March, aim to revitalize domestic production and job growth. However, he also suggested the possibility of further tariff increases, adding to market uncertainty.



Investor Concerns Over Tariffs and Trade War Escalation

Investors are grappling with the implications of Trump’s tariffs, particularly in distinguishing between policy announcements and concrete actions. The uncertainty surrounding additional levies and potential retaliatory measures has reignited fears of an intensifying global trade war. Tariffs on Chinese goods are already in effect, and concerns persist about further economic fallout.

According to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs, the key challenge in portfolio strategy now lies in identifying assets that can effectively hedge against tariff risks. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, he noted, “The big challenge is that this is going to be much more difficult from here because the tariffs are very specific.”

Key Economic Data and Federal Reserve Testimony in Focus

Beyond trade tensions, investors are closely watching this week’s critical economic reports and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress, while fresh inflation data will provide further insight into price trends. According to the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation expectations for both the one-year and three-year outlooks remained steady at 3% in January. Short-term US inflation expectations have now risen above longer-term projections to their widest gap since 2023, signalling potential shifts in monetary policy.

Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market today.

A reprieve from negative surprises, such as the impact of DeepSeek, ongoing tariffs, and consumer sentiment concerns, could push S&P 500 to break out of its two-month consolidation.



Currency and Commodity Markets React

The currency market also reflected shifting investor sentiment. The Japanese Yen remained largely unchanged. Meanwhile, the British Pound weakened after a report from the Financial Times cited Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann’s concerns that weakening demand is beginning to outweigh inflationary risks.

Gold’s continued ascent has been accompanied by significant inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Global holdings have risen in six of the past seven weeks, reaching their highest levels since November. Banks have forecast that gold could test the $3,000 mark, with Citigroup predicting it could hit that level within three months and J.P. Morgan Private Bank projecting a year-end target of $3,150.

Market Resilience Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite ongoing tariff tensions, equities have demonstrated resilience, leading some analysts to caution that further trade escalations could trigger renewed market pullbacks. Strategists at Deutsche Bank AG, including Binky Chadha, suggested that historical patterns indicate sharp but short-lived equity selloffs during geopolitical events, with markets typically rebounding before any formal de-escalation occurs. They projected that, in such scenarios, equity markets could decline by 6%-8% over a three-week period before recovering in a similar timeframe.

China’s Growing Gold Reserves and Market Influence

China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January, signalling an ongoing commitment to diversifying its holdings despite record-high prices. In addition, China introduced a pilot program allowing 10 major insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets in bullion for the first time. This initiative could translate into as much as 200 billion Yuan ($27.4 billion) in potential gold investments.

Key Market Events to Watch This Week

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today
* Speeches by Fed officials Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Michelle Bowman today
* US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, Wednesday

As global markets continue to navigate economic uncertainties, investors remain watchful of trade developments, monetary policy signals, and inflation trends that could shape the financial landscape in the coming weeks.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th February 2025.

Financial Markets Await Key Inflation Data Amid Fed's Steady Stance.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Market activity remained largely uneventful despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the commencement of the Treasury’s February refunding. Investors stayed on the sidelines, with little market-moving news to provide direction. Ongoing concerns over tariffs added an element of uncertainty, while Treasury yields remained under pressure throughout the session.

Powell Reaffirms Cautious Approach to Interest Rates

In his Senate testimony, Powell reiterated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no rush to adjust interest rates. He highlighted the resilience of the US economy and labour market, noting that while inflation has moderated over the past two years, it remains elevated. Powell also suggested that the neutral rate might be slightly higher than previously estimated, though this is not a new stance among policymakers. He avoided discussing fiscal policies or tariffs but explicitly stated that the Federal Reserve has no plans to issue a central bank digital currency. However, he confirmed the Fed’s support for stablecoin regulations.

Bond Market Reaction and Treasury Yield Movements

Treasury markets remained under pressure, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report keeping buyers on the sidelines. Even a strong 3-year auction failed to provide a significant boost. Short-term yields saw slight increases, with the 2-year yield closing at 4.287% and the 3-year yield at 4.305%, both just below their session highs. Longer-term yields also edged higher, with the 10-year note at 4.533% and the 30-year bond at 4.743%.

Wall Street Mixed as Dollar Weakens

US equity markets closed mixed after recovering from early losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.28%, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.03%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.36%, weighed down by sector-specific pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from a session high of 108.463 to settle at 107.944 as Powell’s remarks reassured investors, overshadowing concerns over tariffs and rising yields.

Asian and European Markets React

Ahead of the inflation data release, equity index futures showed mixed movements, while Treasury yields edged lower following Tuesday’s declines. In Asia, Japanese 5-year bond yields reached 1% for the first time since 2008, and the yen weakened for a third consecutive session on tariff-related worries. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong stocks saw tech-driven gains, with Alibaba Group rising 8.6% on reports of a partnership with Apple to integrate AI into its products. DeepSeek’s AI developments also boosted Chinese stocks, with analysts suggesting the rally has further upside potential.

In Europe, ABN Amro Bank NV reported lower-than-expected profits, while Heineken NV exceeded expectations on beer volumes. The UK’s fiscal watchdog revised its growth forecasts downward, posing fresh challenges for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who may face potential spending cuts.

Inflation Data in Focus

Investors are eagerly awaiting key US inflation data, set for release later today. Market forecasts indicate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, likely rose 0.3% in January—the fifth such increase in the past six months. The strong labour market continues to support economic growth, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy.

Money markets are currently pricing in a single quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year, expected by September. Earlier projections included two additional cuts in 2025, but a strong January jobs report has prompted a reassessment of the policy outlook.

Currency and Commodity Market Highlights

The Yen remained under pressure as investors worried about Japan’s potential inclusion in the latest round of US tariffs. The Rupee extended its rally following suspected central bank intervention, while Vietnam’s Dong fell to a record low against the dollar.

EURUSD Faces Downside Risks Amid Tariff and Fed Policy Concerns

EURUSD remains steady around 1.0360 during Wednesday’s Asian session but could face depreciation as the US advances a plan for reciprocal tariffs. President Trump’s administration is considering executive action to match or exceed tariffs imposed on US exports, potentially targeting the EU, Japan, and China.

The Eurozone is particularly vulnerable, as it currently imposes a 10% duty on US automobile imports while benefiting from lower tariffs on its own exports. Additional trade tensions could weigh on the Euro.



Meanwhile, the US Dollar may strengthen after Fed Chair Powell signalled no urgency to cut interest rates, reinforcing a risk-off sentiment alongside Trump’s 25% tariff hike. These factors could add pressure on EURUSD in the near term.

In the commodities market, oil prices edged lower amid reports of a large increase in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude traded below $77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $73. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 9-million-barrel increase in US inventories, marking the largest build in a year if confirmed by official data.

Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session after briefly surging above $2,942 per ounce in volatile trading.

Market Outlook

As the global markets brace for inflation data and further Fed guidance, investors remain cautious. Powell’s testimony reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance on rate adjustments, while geopolitical and economic uncertainties—ranging from trade tariffs to currency fluctuations—continue to influence market sentiment. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators for further direction on interest rates and inflation trends.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th February 2025.

Can The NASDAQ Maintain Momentum at Key Resistance Level?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The price of the NASDAQ throughout the week rose more than 3.00% to bring the price back up to the instrument’s resistance level. However, while taking into consideration higher inflation, tariffs and the resistance level, could the index maintain momentum?

US Inflation Rises For a 4th Consecutive Month

The US Consumer Price Index, or inflation, rose for a 4th consecutive month taking the rate even further away from the Federal Reserve’s target. Analysts were expecting the US inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, consumer inflation rose to 3.00%, the highest since July 2024, while Producer inflation rose to 3.5%.

Higher inflation traditionally triggers lower sentiment towards the stock market as investors' risk appetite falls and they prefer the US Dollar. However, on this occasion bullish volatility rose. For this reason, some traders may be considering if the price is overbought in the short term.

Addressing these statistics, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has yet to achieve its goal of curbing inflation, adding further hawkish signals regarding the monetary policy. Other members of the FOMC also share this view. Today, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that the Fed is unlikely to implement interest rate cuts in the near future. This is due to ongoing economic uncertainty following the introduction of trade tariffs on imported goods and other policies from the Republican-led White House.

Most of the Federal Open Market Committee emphasizes additional time is needed to fully assess the situation. According to the Chicago Exchange FedWatch Tool, interest rate cuts may not start until September 2025.

What’s Driving The NASDAQ Higher?

Earnings data this week has continued to support the NASDAQ. Early this morning Airbnb made public their quarterly earnings report whereby they beat both earnings per share and revenue expectations. The Earnings Per Share read 25% higher than expectations and Revenue was more than 2% higher. As a result, the stock rose more than 14%. Another company this week that made public positive earnings data is Cisco which rose by more than 2% on Thursday.

Another positive factor continues to be the positive employment data. Even though the positive employment data can push back interest rate cuts, the stability in the short term continues to serve the interests of higher consumer demand. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.00% the lowest in 8 months. Lastly, investors are also increasing their exposure to the index due to sellers not being able to maintain control or momentum. Some economists also increase their confidence in economic growth if Trump can obtain a positive outcome from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations.

However, during Friday’s pre-US session trading, 80% of the most influential stocks are witnessing a decline. The NASDAQ itself is trading more or less unchanged. Therefore, the question again arises as to whether the NASDAQ can maintain momentum above this area.

NASDAQ - News and Technical analysis

In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is largely witnessing mainly bullish indications on the 2-hour chart. However, the main concern for traders is the resistance level at $21,960. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is mainly experiencing bearish signals as the price moves below the 200-period simple moving average.

The VIX, which is largely used as a risk indicator, is currently trading 0.75% higher which indicates a lower risk appetite. In addition to this, bond yields trade 6 points higher. If both the VIX and Bond yields rise further, further pressure may be witnessed for index traders.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th February 2025.

The AUD Surges as Foreign Buyer Ban Hits & Rate Cuts Nears!


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

In 2025 the Australian Dollar has been one of the best-performing currencies increasing by 2.85% so far. Analysts expect the AUD to be one of the most volatile currencies of the week due to policy changes. The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to cut its interest rates by 0.25% and has announced a ban on foreigners purchasing homes for 2 years. What does this mean for the Australian Dollar?

RBA To Cuts Rate For First Time Since 2025

Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 4.35% to 4.10% tomorrow morning. This would mark the first time that the RBA has cut interest rates since November 2020. Lower interest rates tend to pressure the currencies, however, the value of the AUD will largely depend on how frequently the RBA will cut in 2025. Tomorrow’s press conference at 04:30 GMT will be key for further indications.

Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 2.0% year-on-year profit increase, reaching $5.13 billion for the six months ending December 31. The bank also posted a 7.0% profit increase for the second half of its 2024 financial year, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.06 billion. It announced an interim dividend of $2.25 per share, a 5.0% increase from the previous year.

Following the earnings release, the bank's shares surged 2.4%, making them the top gainers on the ASX 200 and hitting a record high of $165.98. While Australian households and businesses continue to face rising living costs, experts note a decline in loan defaults and fewer customers seeking financial assistance, largely attributed to low unemployment.

Australia Ban Foreigners from Buying Homes for 2-Years

Australia restricts foreign home purchases for two years to help balance supply and demand. At first, the price of the currency index opened at a lower price (bearish price gap). However, the price has since risen in value and is currently one of the better-performing currencies of the day. So far, the currency has not negatively reacted to the news, but investors remain on the lookout.

Starting April 1, 2025, Australia will ban foreign buyers, including temporary residents and foreign-owned companies, from purchasing homes until March 2027. Housing Minister Clare O’Neil announced the move to address soaring property prices and support local buyers, especially young voters.

EURAUD - Indications and Price Analysis.



The Euro is the day's worst-performing currency and may face further pressure this week amid scrutiny over the German elections. For this reason, the EURAUD currently is witnessing less conflicting price action elements and indications. The EURAUD on a 2-hour timeframe is currently trading below both trend-lines and Moving Averages and below the neutral level of the RSI.

Simultaneously, the EURAUD is also trading lower on the 5-minute timeframe. On the 5-minute timeframe the price is trading below the 200-period SMA and may see sell indications strengthen if the price falls below 1.64452. The next significant support level can be seen at 1.63895.

Key Takeaway Points:

* Australia Ban Foreigners from buying homes for 2 years in an attempt to balance the current supply and demand. The Australian Dollar increases in value on Monday.
* Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its main Cash Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow morning.
* The Japanese Yen, US Dollar and Australian Dollar are the best-performing currencies of the day so far.
* The Euro is the day's worst-performing currency and may face further pressure this week amid scrutiny over the German elections.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th February 2025.

UK Unemployment Rate Falls and The Pound Spikes Upwards.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The British Pound spikes upwards against all currencies as the UK releases its employment data. However, the latest employment data release does not give long-term confidence as the UK continues to see a higher possibility of economic stagnation in 2025. Can the GBP maintain momentum?

UK Releases Latest Employment Data!

The UK employment data had its positive and negative points. The Monthly Unemployment Claims rose 22,000 which is at a 3 month high, and higher than analysts’ previous expectations. This is known to be negative for the British Pound. However, the UK also saw some positive data which investors are clinging onto. The UK Unemployment Rate fell for the first time since October 2024.

The UK Unemployment Rate, to the surprise of analysts, fell from 4.5% to 4.4%. Lastly, the Average UK Salaries Index rose to 6.00%, the highest in 13 months and higher than previous expectations. This is the main reason why the GBP is increasing in value. That said, the Bank of England and economists continue to expect the UK to witness stagnation in 2025.



The British Pound

The British Pound is now one of the best-performing currencies of the day so far. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are also strongly increasing in value. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Bailey, is due to speak at 09:30 GMT and is likely to comment on the latest employment data.

Previously, Bailey described the UK’s economic growth as “static,” despite stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 data—0.1% growth instead of the forecasted –0.1% quarterly and 1.4% annually versus the expected 1.1%. Meanwhile, the BoE revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.75% from 1.0% in November. Traders are also hoping Governor Bailey will comment on the possible future rate cuts.

Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release January inflation data. Analysts expect the annual CPI to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%, while monthly prices may drop by 0.3% after a similar increase in December. The Core CPI is projected to climb from 3.2% to 3.6%.

When evaluating the GBP Index, the GBP is currently trading 0.95% higher in 2025. However, the upward price movement is largely due to last week’s Gross Domestic Product which beat expectations. The performance of the GBP will also depend on whether the US imposes tariffs. Additionally, pressure on the UK to increase defence spending could further strain the country's already scrutinized budget.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis and Price Condition

The GBPUSD is trading above the main moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and is trading high on most oscillators. These factors indicate that the buyers are currently controlling momentum, but traders are concerned about two factors.

The first is that the GBPUSD is struggling to break above the 1.26300 level and the fact that both the USD and GBP is simultaneously increasing in value. As both currencies are increasing in value, technical analysts view the price action as conflicting. On the 5-minute chart, the GBPUSD is trading at the 200-bar average price movement indicating a neutral signal. This also follows the concerns of traders that the price action is conflicting.



If the price breaks above 1.25918, the GBPUSD may witness sell signals materialize. However, if the price breaks above 1.26200, buy signals may arise which will also be in line with the indications on the 2-hour timeframe.

Key Takeaway Points:

* GBP rises as the UK employment data lifts GBP, but stagnation concerns remain.
* UK Salaries hit a 13-month high, boosting the Pound.
* The Bank of England Governor, Mr Bailey may hint at future rate cuts and advises the UK will witness economic stagnation.
* The key risks for the GBP remain inflation data, US tariffs, and UK defence spending pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th February 2025.

Is the DAX Overbought After Rising For 7 Weeks Straight?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The DAX rose by 20% in 2024, however, in 2025 so far the DAX has risen more than 15% in only 50 days. The DAX has risen for seven straight weeks, driven by rate cuts and strong earnings reports. Can the DAX maintain momentum or is the price overbought?

DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend?

Three factors are driving the price of the DAX higher. The first is the European Central Bank which has cut for 2 consecutive months and is likely to adjust a further 0.75% in 2025. The lower interest rates and expectations of further cuts are known to support the DAX due to higher consumer demand.



The second factor driving prices higher are the positive earnings data. SAP SE is the most influential stock and has risen by 18% so far this year. SAP’s latest quarterly earnings report saw the company beat revenue expectations by 2.60% and earnings by 1.40%. The second most influential stock for the DAX is Siemens AG which has risen almost 20% in 2025 so far. All of the seven most influential stocks have risen in value this year so far and only 17% of the whole DAX have declined this year so far. However, traders should note that not all companies within the DAX have made public their quarterly earnings reports.

The third factor is the expectation that the Ukraine-Russia conflict will end or reach a ceasefire in the first half of the year. Traders should note that an end to the conflict is more crucial for European indices in comparison to Asian or US indices. This is due to the nature of Europe and European geopolitics.

Is the German DAX Overbought?

When analyzing the price movement the index is trading in the overbought zone on most oscillators and on most timeframes. However, price action and previous impulse waves indicate the price will not be overbought unless the price increases above 23,250EUR. However, the intrinsic value of the DAX will also depend on US tariffs.

If Germany is able to avoid harsh US tariffs, German stocks may continue to increase higher as sentiment improves. However, harsh tariffs are likely to apply downward pressure on the index and increase the likelihood of being overbought in the short-to-medium term.

If the price indeed declines, traders may first target the support level at $22,437.58, which will likely fall in line with the 75-period Moving Average. The main bullish breakout point is at the 22,724.30 mark.

Tariffs on Foreign Cars

A key risk for the DAX as mentioned above is US tariffs, particularly on cars. The DAX index includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen. Total new cars sales in the US from these 4 companies make up almost 10% of the overall sales.



Donald Trump remained defiant despite warnings that his proposed trade war could disrupt the US economy, stating that his administration might impose tariffs of approximately 25% on foreign cars within weeks. He also announced that semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals would soon face higher tariffs, speaking at a news conference on Tuesday.

Key Takeaway Points:

* The DAX has surged over 15% in 2025, driven by ECB rate cuts, strong earnings, and optimism over the Ukraine conflict.
* SAP SE and Siemens AG are the top-performing stocks and 83% of the DAX has witnessed gains. However, some earnings reports are still pending.
* Despite trading in overbought territory, the index may continue rising unless it faces harsh US tariffs.
* Potential US tariffs on foreign cars pose a key risk, impacting major DAX-listed car makers. This includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th February 2025.

The Yen Continues To Rebound, Investors Boost Bets Of Rate Hikes


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The Japanese Yen significantly increases in value against all currencies and the JPY Index is trading at a 2-month high. The primary factor supporting the Japanese Yen is the growing expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, along with its safe-haven appeal.

Will the JPY be the best-performing currency of 2025?

DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend?

The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the year increasing by 4.20% so far. The second best-performing currency is the Australian Dollar which has risen 2.83% and the New Zealand Dollar which is up 2.20%. Here we can see the momentum of the JPY in 2025.

The main supporting factors are the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes, expectations of further hikes and the currency’s safe haven characteristics. Investors were also quick to consider increasing their exposure to the Japanese Yen as the currency was trading at a price 33% lower than in 2022.

The Bank of Japan over the past months has taken interest rates to a 17-year high. Currently, investors believe the Bank of Japan will adjust its main rate by a further 50 basis points to 1.00%. This would take the BoJ’s rate to the highest since 1995. Meanwhile, this week the Bank of Japan Governor Mr Takata stated that the central bank should further increase interest rates, warning that maintaining the current levels might cause the public to become too accustomed to the risks of rising prices and accelerating inflation. The Bank of Japan’s next interest rate decision will be on March 19th.

One of the key concerns for the Bank of Japan is the country’s inflation rate which has risen to 3.6%. Inflation is currently at its highest level since January 2023. Another key influential factor is potential tariffs not only on Japan but also on the main global economies. In 2018, when tariffs were previously introduced, the Japanese Yen rose in value due to its safe haven nature. However, traders will evaluate upcoming tariffs and its domino effect on the Japanese Yen day by day.

The US Dollar and Its Risks To The Japanese Yen

The US Dollar continues to struggle in February 2025, however, fundamental factors continue to indicate the currency can rebound. Traders should note that a strong US Dollar can have a negative effect on the Japanese Yen. Market optimism is bolstered by the Senate's confirmation of financier Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. A former Cantor Fitzgerald director and supporter of Donald Trump’s trade policies, Lutnick has dismissed concerns that high tariffs fuel inflation and advocates for stronger sanctions to reduce export barriers. His appointment raises the risk of strained US trade relations.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for restrictive monetary policy until inflation slows, citing economic and labour market stability. The Federal Reserve seeks ‘further progress on inflation’ before cutting rates, according to FOMC Meeting Minutes. Some members of the committee suggested a limited need for further reductions. Meanwhile, economists advise the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates unless inflation falls to at least 2.7%.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.16% lower ensuring there are no current conflicts while the Japanese Yen is increasing in value. In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading comfortably lower and below all major Moving Averages. The USDJPY is also trading below 30 on the Relative Strength Index again indicating sellers are driving the price lower.



However, traders will be cautious the price action does not change as the Asian session comes to an end. Currently, the price has retraced upwards as the close edges nearer. Bearish momentum will need to be regained in order for sell signals to again materialize. The price movement will also depend on today's US news releases.

Key Takeaway Points:

* Japanese Yen Strength – The JPY is the best-performing currency of 2025 so far, gaining 4.20%, driven by expectations of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and its safe-haven appeal.
* Japanese Inflation - Japan’s inflation rate which has risen to 3.6%. Inflation is currently at its highest level since January 2023
* Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy – The BoJ has raised rates to a 17-year high and may hike further by 50 basis points to 1.00%, the highest level since 1995.
* US Dollar Influence – A stronger US Dollar could pressure the Yen. The Fed is maintaining a restrictive policy, and rate cuts are unlikely unless inflation falls to at least 2.7%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st February 2025.

European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day?

European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes

The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.



The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close.

The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone.

German Elections 2 Days Away

Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists.

Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone.

Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators

The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!

Key Takeaway Points:

* Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close.
* The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory.
* Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult.
* ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th February 2025.

German Markets Surge as Friedrich Merz Set To Be Chancellor, Euro Gains on Fiscal Shift.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

* Germany’s stock index futures and the euro rallied after opposition leader Friedrich Merz secured victory.
* Investors expect a shift toward increased government spending.
* US-China trade tensions rise as Trump tightens restrictions on Chinese investments.
* AI optimism fuels Chinese tech stocks despite regulatory concerns.
* Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is expected to impact market volatility.

German Markets React to Election Results

Germany’s stock market and currency experienced a sharp rally in Asian trading after conservative leader Friedrich Merz won the country’s federal election. This victory aligns with pre-election polls and signals a potential departure from Germany’s traditionally strict fiscal policies.

Futures tied to the DAX Index surged as much as 1.5% on Monday, recovering from early losses in a session marked by thin trading volume. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against most major currencies, climbing 0.7% against the U.S. dollar.

Market analysts believe Merz’s leadership could mark the end of Germany’s tight fiscal stance, with expectations that his administration will prioritize economic stimulus. This shift comes at a critical time, as Europe’s largest economy grapples with sluggish growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and the threat of a global trade war under U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Political stability and increased fiscal spending are key market drivers following the election," said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.
The euro’s strength also reflects optimism that Merz will form a government quickly, which wasn’t a widely held expectation before the election.

"If Merz successfully builds a stable coalition, EURUSD could move toward 1.06," noted David Forrester, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole CIB Singapore.



US-China Trade Tensions Intensify

While European markets gained, US-China trade tensions escalated as Trump ordered stricter regulations on Chinese investments in key sectors, including technology, energy, and infrastructure. The move is part of a broader strategy to limit China’s influence in strategic industries. Although not legally binding, the directive strengthens oversight by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a panel responsible for reviewing foreign acquisitions. JPMorgan strategists warned that this decision could reverse gains in Chinese tech stocks, which had rallied earlier in the year.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, Chinese technology stocks have posted strong gains this year, largely driven by optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) and key policy shifts. The market remains under-owned by global investors, suggesting potential for further capital inflows. The growing AI industry has helped offset risks from US tariffs, with investor sentiment remaining bullish on leading Chinese firms like Alibaba and Tencent.

Chinese officials reacted strongly, with Vice Premier He Lifeng raising concerns about Trump’s recent 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods in a call with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Additionally, sources revealed that Trump’s administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as part of broader trade negotiations.

Despite these challenges, investor focus remains on Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, a key event that could drive market volatility.

Gold Nears Record Highs on Inflation and Central Bank Demand

Gold prices held near $2,940 an ounce, just shy of last week’s record, as ETF inflows surged and the US dollar weakened. The precious metal is on its longest winning streak since 2020, fueled by rising inflation expectations and mounting geopolitical uncertainties under Trump’s administration.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $3,100, citing strong central-bank demand and increased ETF holdings.
Lower US Treasury yields have also boosted bullion’s appeal, with traders now expecting the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in July rather than September. Markets will closely watch Friday’s inflation data, a key indicator for Fed policy direction.

Final Thoughts

Markets are reacting to a mix of political and economic shifts, with Germany’s election outcome boosting European equities while US-China trade tensions create uncertainty for Asian markets. Investors will be closely monitoring fiscal policy changes in Germany, Nvidia’s earnings, and further trade developments for insights into market direction.

For more financial market insights and updates, stay tuned.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th February 2025.

Markets on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Plans Shake Global Trade and Investor Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Financial markets continue to experience heightened volatility as US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a move expected to take effect next week. However, scepticism remains, as such tariffs on essential goods like propane and avocados would have an immediate and visible impact on US consumers. Current polls indicate only 32% of American voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, adding further uncertainty to market sentiment.

President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on tariff hikes for Canadian and Mexican imports, further escalating tensions. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production has heightened trade concerns. Market sentiment has been impacted, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropping by 10% in the past month due to fears over inflation and tariffs.

Asian Markets and US-China Tensions

Asian markets suffered significant declines, particularly in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as Trump’s new directives on curbing Chinese investments raised concerns. His administration is also pushing for stricter semiconductor export controls, a move that could further strain US-China relations. The latest measures include discussions with Japan and the Netherlands to limit maintenance support for semiconductor equipment used in China.

Despite initial losses, Chinese technology stocks rebounded, with mainland investors injecting over $1 billion into Hong Kong stocks. This underscores Beijing’s commitment to achieving technological self-sufficiency, a priority for President Xi Jinping in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S. While Chinese internet giants had recently enjoyed a rally, Trump’s renewed restrictions introduced fresh geopolitical risks, weighing on investor confidence.

US Stock Market Struggles Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Stocks declined, and US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months as concerns mounted over Trump’s tariff plans and investment restrictions on China. European equity index futures pointed to a weaker open following a selloff in US stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese shares experienced whipsaw movements, and the Dollar weakened for a second consecutive day. With only a month into his presidency, investors are increasingly cautious about Trump’s policies and their potential impact on economic growth. This uncertainty has driven a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold surging 12% since the start of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated their stance of maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

US stocks continued to slide on Monday following last week’s sharp losses. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 5,983.25, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% to 19,286.92. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 43,461.21. Berkshire Hathaway climbed 4.1% after reporting strong operating profits, yet Warren Buffett’s firm remains cautious, holding $334.2 billion in unused cash. Starbucks gained 1.3% after announcing 1,100 corporate job cuts to streamline operations under CEO Brian Niccol.

In Japan, trading houses saw a surge in stock prices after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signalled plans to increase its holdings. Mitsubishi Corp. led the rally, climbing 9.2%—its biggest gain in a year—while Marubeni Corp. and Mitsui & Co. also posted strong advances. Buffett’s interest in Japanese trading houses underscores their diversification across industries, making them resilient to market fluctuations.

Nvidia’s Earnings and AI Market Disruptions

Nvidia, a major driver of the AI boom, is set to release earnings on Wednesday. The market is watching closely after China’s DeepSeek announced an AI model that rivals US technology without requiring high-end chips. This development has sparked concerns about demand for AI-related infrastructure, causing Nvidia shares to drop 3.1%, weighing on the S&P 500.



Commodities and Corporate Movements

The commodity sector also faced significant developments, particularly in the cobalt market. A surprise four-month export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, sent shockwaves through the industry. The move aims to curb global oversupply, but it has also raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the battery and alloy industries.

Gold Prices Retreat as Investors Take Profits

Gold prices eased after hitting fresh record highs, as investors took profits amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and economic outlook. Lower Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s strength after a well-received two-year note auction. Analysts from ANZ Banking Group noted increasing physical flows into gold ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets.

US crude oil gained 52 cents to $71.22 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $74.75 per barrel. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen at 149.50, while the Euro strengthened to $1.0473. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “Trump trade,” also slid amid the uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 04th March 2025.

Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.

OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices

OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.

OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.

The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.



US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars

The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.

The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.

Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.

Crude Oil - Technical Analysis

The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.

However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.

[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?fil ... iginal.png[/img]

Key Takeaway Points:

* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 03rd March 2025.

The NASDAQ and Global Stocks Rebound On Tariff Optimism.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Stocks rebound during yesterday’s US session after the US Commerce Chief advises there is room for discussions with tariffs. The NASDAQ initially fell to the lowest price since before the US elections, but quickly rebounded and rose 3.25%. On Wednesday, all stocks are rising in value including in the US, Europe and Asia.

NASDAQ Rebounds on Optimism Over Tariff Talks

The price of the NASDAQ rose in value as investors took the lower price as an opportunity to buy the discount. The US Commerce Chief said that even though the US will not remove tariffs on Mexico and Canada, they are looking to negotiate and meet them ‘in the middle’. As a result, investors quickly reentered the stock market, particularly the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ previously fell almost 10% from its recent high due to the potential negative effect of tariffs.



Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced retaliatory tariffs on US products worth 155 billion CAD ($107 billion), set to take full effect at the end of the month. Meanwhile, China imposed 10–15% tariffs on various US agricultural goods, including soybeans, corn, dairy, and beef. Experts warn these trade barriers could accelerate inflation. However, the effect on the stock market in the long-term will depend on if the US will negotiate a ‘[middle ground’.

Additionally, the GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed revised U.S. GDP projections down to -2.8% from the previous -1.5%, increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move, whether to maintain high rates to curb inflation or lower borrowing costs to support the economy. The NASDAQ may positively react if the Federal Reserve considers earlier and more frequent rate cuts.

The NASDAQ and The Global Stock Market

The performance of the NASDAQ depends on if the US can work out a deal with Mexico and Canada. However, the performance of the global stock market indicates that sentiment is improving after the dip. All global indices including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei225 and Hang Seng are trading higher today.

Additionally US Bond Yields continue to indicate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least on 2 occasions. The VIX, which is used as a risk indicator, is trading more than 3.00% lower which is known to be positive for the NASDAQ. This can also be seen in the price movement of the NASDAQ’s most influential stocks which are on the rise in the market pre-open trading hours.

Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and NVIDIA are all trading higher during Wednesday’s Asian and European Session. NVIDIA is witnessing the strongest increase rising 1.70%. Whereas, on Tuesday, only 46% of the most influential stocks saw an increase in value.

NASDAQ Technical Analysis

Although the NASDAQ and global stocks have shown positive movement in recent hours, they are still in a retracement phase. Based on the medium-term average price and oscillators, the price maintains a bearish bias. Therefore, at first any bearish signals will mainly target the $20,728.00 price which is in line with the trend-line and resistance level. Whereas, if momentum is lost and falls below $20,424.32, sell signals may again materialize.

Key Takeaway Points:

* NASDAQ Rebounds: The NASDAQ surged 3.25% after the US Commerce Chief suggested room for tariff discussions, with investors buying at a discounted price.
* Tariff Impact: Canada imposed $107 billion in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, while China introduced 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural products, raising inflation concerns.
* Global Markets Up: Global indices, including the DAX, Nikkei, and Hang Seng, are rising, indicating improving market sentiment after recent declines.
* Fed Uncertainty & Rate Cuts: The US GDPNow model lowered GDP projections to -2.8%, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the near future.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th March 2025.

The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought.

Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value?

The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence.



In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs.

Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market.

Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro?

The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable.

Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum.

EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators

The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes.

Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today.

Key Takeaway Points:

* The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil.
* The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend.
* The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected.
* Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.