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Date: 3rd February 2026.

2026 Market Highlights: AUD Leads, Silver Corrects, NASDAQ Gains on Trade.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The years 2024 and 2025 were great year-on-year performances for the global stock markets and metals. In 2026, the trend for metals continues even though the market has seen a significant dip over the past few days. The stock market has also had its mixed volatility but is in line with traditional levels from the past decade. However, the currency market has seen higher volatility than previous years.


The Australian Dollar - 2026’s Best Performing Currency

The Australian Dollar is the best-performing currency of the year so far. Its volatility levels are also significantly higher than those seen in other bullish trends from previous years. The best performing currency of 2025 was the Euro and Swiss Franc, which rose around 13%. The Australian Dollar, in a period of five weeks, has already risen more than 5%.

What is driving the price of the Australian Dollar higher?


HFM - AUDUSD 3-Hour Chart

The bullish price movement of the AUD is mainly split into three points. The first being the hawkish monetary policy due to strong economic data. Gold strength is another factor. Another is Australia’s limited exposure to current geopolitical hotspots such as China and Greenland. Finally, the Australian Dollar has been heavily shorted over the past 15 years, and investors are now unwinding those positions.

The latest developments supporting the price of the Australian Dollar are the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision. The RBA has raised the cash rate from 3.60% to 3.85%, which is the first rate hike of 2026 and the RBA’s first rate adjustment since July 2025.

ANZ’s Adam Boyton said higher inflation, weaker growth and a higher projected rate path make another RBA hike likely. NAB’s Sally Auld added inflation pressures mean this is unlikely to be a one-and-done move, with another 25bp hike expected and risks skewed higher. The RBA said upcoming global and domestic data will guide future decisions.

The Australian Dollar index has risen 0.90% in response to the RBA’s decision to increase rates.

Was Silver Too Expensive?


HFM - Silver 3-Hour Chart

Silver had been the best performing asset across all asset classes of both 2025 and 2026 so far. However, Silver is now stranger to volatility and it is a significantly smaller market than Gold and even other metals. Therefore, even though Silver’s decline, which started on Friday, measured 40%, the figure is not unthinkable considering Gold also fell 21%. Many economists believe that Silver sees double the level of volatility of Gold and sometimes even 2.5 times higher.

Most economists including StoneX saw the price movements as an unwinding of a trend which was ‘vastly overstretched’.

The main drivers for the sell-off were Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve chairman, large institutions raising capital requirements for Silver futures and many economists advising the price was simply too high.

NASDAQ - Key Earnings Reports

The NASDAQ is witnessing a stronger bullish correction due to recent developments continuing to support higher prices. The NASDAQ trades 0.35% higher on Tuesday and is forming its second bullish daily candlestick.



Stocks find support from a new US-India trade and economic agreement, which investors see as strengthening cooperation and reshaping global trade flows. The deal cuts US import duties on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, boosting competitiveness, export-focused profits, and emerging-market stocks. In return, India will increase purchases of US goods by around $500B a year and reduce oil imports from Russia, supporting US industries and reinforcing risk appetite across markets.

A key factor for the stock market this week will be the upcoming employment data for the US as well as significant earnings reports. AMD, which is the NASDAQ’s 13th most influential company, is due to release its earnings report later this evening. The stock so far this year has risen more than 10%. In addition, the stock is trading 1.65% higher during pre-market hours indicating investors are expecting strong earnings.

Alphabet (Google) is also due to announce its quarterly earnings report tomorrow evening. Alphabet has become the second most influential stock for the NASDAQ and is also rising more than 1% during pre-market hours. In 2026 so far, the stock is trading 9.38% higher. Currently, 64% of the most influential stocks are trading higher as the stock market gets ready to open.

Key Takeaways

* RBA rate hikes, strong gold prices, limited geopolitical risk, and short-covering have driven the Australian Dollar to become 2026’s best-performing currency.
Silver has seen extreme volatility with a sharp 40% drop as the market corrects after an overstretched rally and * higher capital requirements.
* The US-India trade deal, strong earnings expectations, and upcoming US employment data are supporting the NASDAQ and other stocks.
* AMD and Alphabet are increasing in value as the release of their quarterly earnings reports edge closer.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th February 2026.

Market Briefing: Tech Sell-Off, Gold Rebound and Rising Geopolitical Tensions Shake Global Markets.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility as investors navigated political developments in the US and Europe, renewed geopolitical risks, sharp rotations within equities, and extreme price swings in precious metals. While risk appetite has not collapsed, sentiment has clearly shifted toward caution, diversification, and selective positioning.

US Politics and the Federal Reserve: Markets Look Past the Shutdown

US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the latest government shutdown, an event that had little impact on markets. Investors appear increasingly desensitised to US political disruptions, treating them as background noise rather than systemic risks.

More attention was paid to developments surrounding the Federal Reserve. Democrats signalled unified opposition to confirming former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair unless the administration halts its legal actions against the central bank. While expected, this raises the possibility that Jerome Powell could remain as FOMC Chair beyond May. For markets, continuity at the Fed is viewed as supportive, particularly at a time when confidence in institutional independence is being closely scrutinised.

Europe: Fiscal Uncertainty Persists as Inflation Cools

France passed its 2026 budget after the government survived a vote of confidence. Although this avoided immediate political instability, the country’s longer-term fiscal challenges remain unresolved. Markets largely absorbed the news calmly, viewing France’s fiscal position as less destabilising than ongoing US budget concerns.

Across the Eurozone, flash estimates for January consumer price inflation are expected to confirm further disinflation, with headline CPI slowing to around 1.7% year-on-year. Cooling inflation continues to support real income growth, offering a constructive foundation for European economic activity despite political uncertainty.

US Equity Markets: Technology Under Pressure

Wall Street retreated as technology stocks led a broad rotation away from growth. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow Jones slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.4%.

Major technology names weighed on sentiment, with Nvidia and Microsoft both declining close to 3%. Investors remain concerned about elevated valuations and whether heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure will translate into sustainable earnings. PayPal plunged more than 20% following weaker-than-expected results, while Pfizer declined despite posting stronger quarterly profits, highlighting the market’s increasingly selective response to earnings.



Asian Markets: Mixed Performance Amid Tech Weakness

Asian equities were mixed, reflecting the overnight decline in US technology stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.6%, pressured by losses in semiconductor-related stocks such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest. Nintendo shares plunged more than 10% despite strong earnings, as investors questioned whether sales momentum for the Switch 2 console can be maintained.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.9%, continuing to set record highs despite weakness in major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.4%, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was flat.

Software stocks across Asia came under particular pressure following developments in artificial intelligence that threaten traditional software-as-a-service business models. Indian IT leaders Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys fell sharply, while Australia’s Xero and Japan’s Nomura Research Institute also posted significant losses. These declines were partly offset by gains in financials and industrials, reinforcing the theme of sector rotation rather than broad risk aversion.

Commodities: Gold and Silver Rebound After Historic Sell-Off

Precious metals staged a strong rebound after last week’s sharp collapse. Gold rose nearly 4%, reclaiming levels above $5,000 an ounce, while silver jumped more than 5% following heavy liquidation-driven losses.

The rebound was driven by dip-buying as forced selling eased and the US dollar weakened. Despite extreme volatility, analysts argue the broader macro case for gold remains intact. Safe-haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and central bank diversification continue to support bullion over the medium to long term. Several major banks have reiterated bullish outlooks, even as near-term volatility remains elevated.



Oil Prices Rise on Renewed Gulf Tensions

Oil prices advanced for a second consecutive session after geopolitical tensions resurfaced in the Gulf. Brent crude traded near $68 per barrel, while WTI moved toward $64, following reports that the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier.

Energy markets remain sensitive to even limited incidents in the region, with analysts warning that miscalculations could lead to rapid escalation. For now, price action reflects a modest geopolitical risk premium rather than supply disruption concerns.

Currencies and Crypto: Yen Weakens, Bitcoin Stabilises

In currency markets, the US dollar was broadly steady. The Japanese yen weakened ahead of Japan’s upcoming election, with investors positioning for potential fiscal stimulus that could increase government debt. The euro edged higher, supported by easing inflation expectations in the Eurozone.

Bitcoin rebounded modestly in Asian trading after falling to a more-than-one-year low during US hours. However, sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that further declines could intensify stress across crypto-exposed companies and leveraged products.

Market Outlook: Volatility Favours Active Traders

The dominant theme across global markets is rotation rather than capitulation. Investors are reassessing technology exposure, rotating into value sectors, and selectively increasing allocations to defensive and safe-haven assets. With geopolitical risks simmering, political uncertainty persisting, and AI-driven disruption accelerating, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the trading environment.

For traders, the current landscape rewards disciplined risk management, flexibility, and close monitoring of cross-asset signals as markets continue to adjust to a rapidly evolving macro backdrop.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th February 2026.

Big Day for Central Banks as Tech Stocks Slide and Precious Metals Turn Volatile.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets are facing renewed pressure as a sharp pullback in technology stocks ripples across regions, while traditionally defensive assets such as gold and silver fail to provide stability. What started as a valuation-driven selloff in US tech has evolved into a broader reassessment of risk, affecting Asian equities, European markets, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

At the centre of the turbulence lies growing scepticism around artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, rising capital expenditures, and the sustainability of recent market gains.

Tech Stocks Under Pressure as AI Valuation Concerns Grow

Asian technology shares extended their losses, with MSCI’s Asia Tech Index falling for the fifth time in six sessions. Major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group declined, while South Korea’s Kospi Index, widely viewed as a proxy for AI-related investment, dropped more than 3%.

The weakness followed a volatile US session where disappointing earnings reactions from Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reignited concerns that AI expectations may be running ahead of near-term profitability. Even companies that reported stronger-than-expected earnings struggled to support their share prices, a sign that market sentiment toward high-growth tech stocks has shifted.

Semiconductor and Software Stocks Lead the Decline

The selloff has been particularly intense among chipmakers and software companies, as investors question whether massive AI-related spending will translate into sustainable revenue growth. Fears are also emerging that AI innovation could disrupt existing software business models rather than enhance them.

The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst two-day decline since October, breaking below its 100-day moving average, a technical level often associated with further downside risk. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from recent highs, placing it firmly in bear-market territory.

Market Rotation Signals Caution, Not Capitulation

Despite the speed of the selloff, market participants are increasingly viewing the move as a sector rotation rather than a systemic panic. With the US economy showing resilience, investors are reallocating capital toward defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and select industrial names.

This rotation has led to significant value destruction within the technology sector. In just two days, hundreds of billions of dollars were erased from the market capitalisation of companies across the AI ecosystem, particularly among US-listed software firms.

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge Amid Position Unwinding

In a surprising development, precious metals, often seen as safe-haven assets, have come under intense selling pressure.

Silver Suffers Historic Selloff

Silver prices collapsed by as much as 17%, marking one of the sharpest drops on record. After surging to multi-year highs on speculative inflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of lower US interest rates, the metal has retreated more than one-third from its recent peak.

Thin liquidity, leveraged positioning, and aggressive profit-taking amplified the move, creating a feedback loop that weighed heavily on broader market sentiment.

Gold Prices Follow Lower

Gold prices also fell sharply, posting their largest decline since 2013 before stabilising. Although longer-term fundamentals remain intact, the abrupt pullback underscores how quickly crowded trades can unwind when sentiment shifts.

Base metals such as copper also weakened, pressured by rising inventories and slowing global growth expectations.



Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Slide as Risk Appetite Fades

Bitcoin extended its losses, briefly drifting toward the $70,000 level as global risk appetite deteriorated and the US dollar strengthened. Despite its reputation as an alternative asset, Bitcoin continues to trade in line with broader liquidity conditions, particularly during periods of heightened volatility.

Currency Markets Focus on Central Banks and Political Risk

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar gained modestly, pushing the euro and British pound slightly lower ahead of interest-rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders remain sensitive to forward guidance.



Japanese Yen Nears Intervention Levels

The Japanese yen has weakened for several consecutive sessions, approaching levels that previously triggered official intervention. Political developments are adding to the pressure, with markets anticipating that a strong election outcome for Japan’s ruling party could enable more expansionary fiscal policies, a combination that may further weigh on the currency.

Oil Prices Ease as Geopolitical Tensions Cool

Crude oil prices declined after Iran confirmed it would engage in negotiations with the United States, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, ongoing dialogue between US and Chinese leaders has kept trade relations and geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

The dominant theme across global markets is reassessment. After months of momentum-driven gains, particularly in AI-related assets, investors are now scrutinising valuations, earnings sustainability, and balance-sheet strength more carefully.

While long-term structural trends such as artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and automation remain intact, recent price action serves as a reminder that even the strongest narratives are vulnerable to corrections.

As markets navigate earnings season, central bank policy signals, and political developments, volatility is likely to remain elevated, with diversification and risk management taking centre stage once again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th February 2026.

Big Day for Central Banks as Tech Stocks Slide and Precious Metals Turn Volatile.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global financial markets are facing renewed pressure as a sharp pullback in technology stocks ripples across regions, while traditionally defensive assets such as gold and silver fail to provide stability. What started as a valuation-driven selloff in US tech has evolved into a broader reassessment of risk, affecting Asian equities, European markets, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies.

At the centre of the turbulence lies growing scepticism around artificial intelligence (AI) valuations, rising capital expenditures, and the sustainability of recent market gains.

Tech Stocks Under Pressure as AI Valuation Concerns Grow

Asian technology shares extended their losses, with MSCI’s Asia Tech Index falling for the fifth time in six sessions. Major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group declined, while South Korea’s Kospi Index, widely viewed as a proxy for AI-related investment, dropped more than 3%.

The weakness followed a volatile US session where disappointing earnings reactions from Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reignited concerns that AI expectations may be running ahead of near-term profitability. Even companies that reported stronger-than-expected earnings struggled to support their share prices, a sign that market sentiment toward high-growth tech stocks has shifted.

Semiconductor and Software Stocks Lead the Decline

The selloff has been particularly intense among chipmakers and software companies, as investors question whether massive AI-related spending will translate into sustainable revenue growth. Fears are also emerging that AI innovation could disrupt existing software business models rather than enhance them.

The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst two-day decline since October, breaking below its 100-day moving average, a technical level often associated with further downside risk. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from recent highs, placing it firmly in bear-market territory.

Market Rotation Signals Caution, Not Capitulation

Despite the speed of the selloff, market participants are increasingly viewing the move as a sector rotation rather than a systemic panic. With the US economy showing resilience, investors are reallocating capital toward defensive sectors, including healthcare, consumer staples, and select industrial names.

This rotation has led to significant value destruction within the technology sector. In just two days, hundreds of billions of dollars were erased from the market capitalisation of companies across the AI ecosystem, particularly among US-listed software firms.

Gold and Silver Prices Plunge Amid Position Unwinding

In a surprising development, precious metals, often seen as safe-haven assets, have come under intense selling pressure.

Silver Suffers Historic Selloff

Silver prices collapsed by as much as 17%, marking one of the sharpest drops on record. After surging to multi-year highs on speculative inflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of lower US interest rates, the metal has retreated more than one-third from its recent peak.

Thin liquidity, leveraged positioning, and aggressive profit-taking amplified the move, creating a feedback loop that weighed heavily on broader market sentiment.

Gold Prices Follow Lower

Gold prices also fell sharply, posting their largest decline since 2013 before stabilising. Although longer-term fundamentals remain intact, the abrupt pullback underscores how quickly crowded trades can unwind when sentiment shifts.

Base metals such as copper also weakened, pressured by rising inventories and slowing global growth expectations.



Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Slide as Risk Appetite Fades

Bitcoin extended its losses, briefly drifting toward the $70,000 level as global risk appetite deteriorated and the US dollar strengthened. Despite its reputation as an alternative asset, Bitcoin continues to trade in line with broader liquidity conditions, particularly during periods of heightened volatility.

Currency Markets Focus on Central Banks and Political Risk

In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar gained modestly, pushing the euro and British pound slightly lower ahead of interest-rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Both central banks are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but traders remain sensitive to forward guidance.



Japanese Yen Nears Intervention Levels

The Japanese yen has weakened for several consecutive sessions, approaching levels that previously triggered official intervention. Political developments are adding to the pressure, with markets anticipating that a strong election outcome for Japan’s ruling party could enable more expansionary fiscal policies, a combination that may further weigh on the currency.

Oil Prices Ease as Geopolitical Tensions Cool

Crude oil prices declined after Iran confirmed it would engage in negotiations with the United States, easing immediate concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, ongoing dialogue between US and Chinese leaders has kept trade relations and geopolitical risk firmly in focus.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

The dominant theme across global markets is reassessment. After months of momentum-driven gains, particularly in AI-related assets, investors are now scrutinising valuations, earnings sustainability, and balance-sheet strength more carefully.

While long-term structural trends such as artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and automation remain intact, recent price action serves as a reminder that even the strongest narratives are vulnerable to corrections.

As markets navigate earnings season, central bank policy signals, and political developments, volatility is likely to remain elevated, with diversification and risk management taking centre stage once again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 09th February 2026.

Japan Sees Record-Breaking Election Victory.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Japan’s political developments are evolving quickly and are having a direct impact on financial markets. The NIKKEI 225 rose to all-time highs and has already risen more than 16% in 2026 alone. In addition to this, the Japanese Yen also rises 0.80% after the market open.

Japan’s snap elections have come to a halt with the Liberal Democratic Party coming out as the winner. The Prime Minister's party won more than two-thirds of the lower house, giving her a stronger mandate to push through her policies.

Sanae Takaichi’s Historic Victory

On Sunday, the LDP won 316 of 465 lower-house seats on its own, giving it more than a two-thirds supermajority. The LDP, with its coalition partner, will now control over 350 seats (75% of the house). That result is the largest single-party majority since the LDP’s founding in 1955 and the most seats ever won by any party in postwar Japanese elections.

Analysts were expecting Mrs Takaichi’s party to easily win the elections due to high approval ratings. The Prime Minister's high approval ratings were the main reason behind the snap elections. The victory indicates the public’s support for more growth-oriented economic policies.

Why is the NIKKEI 225 The Best Performing Index?

The NIKKEI 225 is 2026’s best-performing index, rising 16% this year so far. The NIKKEI 255 in the past 12-months has risen 46%, 33% higher than the second-best-performing index. The figures can easily indicate the strength of the index and its trend.

Investors are increasing their exposure to the NIKKEI 225 as inflation returns to Japan for the first time in decades. The lack of inflation was one of the key reasons for investors limiting their exposure to the Japanese markets.

However, the latest and strongest price driver is the elections and the Prime Minister's victory. Japan’s Prime Minister is a clear supporter of an expansionary policy and strong ties with the US. She campaigned on and is expected to pursue policies that emphasise government spending to stimulate economic growth, including fiscal measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and strengthening long-term growth prospects.

NIKKEI 225 - Technical Analysis


HFM - NIKKEI 225 1-Hour Chart

The price of the NIKKEI 225 opened on a bullish price gap measuring 1.98% and then rose a further 1.75%. However, the price soon after came under pressure and fell back to Friday’s closing price. Considering the strong overbought indications from the RSI and MACD, the selloff was not a surprise.

Nonetheless, the buy signal remains relatively strong despite the retracement forming. This is also partially due to the strong bullish price movement from Friday. The NIKKEI 225 rose more than 5% on Friday alone.

On the 1-hour chart, price action continues to show bullish indications, with the price holding above previous highs. The recent decline appears consistent with earlier temporary pullbacks rather than a trend reversal. The price also remains firmly above key Moving Averages and on the positive side of the RSI and MACD.

However, the price movements on smaller timeframes seem less positive as the price retraces. If the price returns above 56,499.3 and thereby crosses the 200-bar SMA, the buy signals potentially may return.

The Japanese Yen

The best performing currency of the day is the Japanese Yen due to the results of the elections. The worst-performing currencies are the US Dollar and the British Pound. The Japanese Yen is increasing in value as sentiment towards the currency partially improves. Though another key reason for this is investors' expectations of more inflation due to any upcoming expansionary policy amendments.

Investors are hoping that the policy and higher inflation will prompt the Bank of Japan to continue increasing interest rates throughout the year. However, regardless of the JPY’s bullish reaction to the elections, technical analysis indicates a bumpy ride as the price struggles to maintain momentum.


HFM - USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:

* Historic LDP win gives PM Takaichi a strong mandate for growth-focused policies.
* NIKKEI 225 hits all-time highs, up 16% in 2026 on political and inflation tailwinds.
* Technical signals remain bullish, with recent pullbacks seen as temporary retracements.
* Japanese yen strengthens on improved sentiment and expectations of higher inflation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th February 2026.

S&P 500 Rebounds as AI Stocks Lead Gains Ahead of Key US Economic Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The US stock market witnesses a second consecutive day of significant gains as market sentiment improves. The S&P 500 earlier in the month fell by more than 4%, but has been regaining bullish momentum. The index has now formed a 90% correction.

The upward price movement is largely due to sentiment towards technology companies and AI improvements. AI-related companies are mainly driving the bullish momentum. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Broadcom are the main drivers of the trend. Today, the US will release its latest Retail Sales figure, which will trigger some volatility for the stock market. However, the price in the medium-term will largely depend on the upcoming NFP data and US Inflation.

US Jobs and Inflation Data

The S&P 500 bullish trend is strongly connected to the upcoming US data, as it is likely to indicate how the Federal Reserve will set its path for interest rates. Buyers will ideally be looking for the inflation rate to decline and for employment to remain somewhat stable. Stronger employment data would allow more leeway for the Federal Reserve to make no adjustments to interest rates.

Analysts are expecting the Non-Farm Employment Change to add 66,000, similar to the previous months. The US Unemployment Rateis also likely to remain at 4.4%. Analysts project the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) to fall from 2.7% to 2.5%, the lowest in 8-months.

Currently, there is only a 17% chance of an interest rate cut in March according to the Fedwatch Tool. However, the decline in inflation can prompt this statistic to move in favour of the stock market. If indeed the statistics do read as per expectations, the S&P 500 may see further bullish momentum.

Another key release will also come from company earnings. Cisco and McDonald’s are due to announce their quarterly earnings report tomorrow. In 2026, Cisco stocks have risen 14% while McDonald's has risen 7%. The two companies make up almost 1% of the total S&P 500.

Risks To The Stock Market

Goldman Sachs’ closely watched “Panic Index” has surged to near so-called “max fear” levels, underscoring a sharp rise in investor anxiety across US equity markets. The spike reflects growing concern that the recent bout of volatility may not be over, and that a deeper sell-off could be triggered if key technical thresholds give way.

According to Goldman’s analysis, positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that as much as $33 billion in equity selling could be unleashed if the S&P 500 breaks below critical support levels that many systematic and momentum-based strategies rely on.

However, other indicators related to risk do not support this outlook. The VIX Index, another fear index, is trading slightly higher this morning; however, its weekly performance indicates a positive stock market. For 2026, the VIX Index has traded higher, which is concerning, but if the index continues to fall like the past week, the fear factor will decline.

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis


HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

The price action and waves within the S&P 500 are following the traditional bullish trend pattern. Price swings continue to form higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes, such as the 15-Minute chart.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA, which indicates a bullish sentiment. The price also remains on the positive side of the MACD, but not above the signal line. However, if the price rises above $6,971, the bars within the MACD are likely to cross above the signal line. As a result, bullish signals are likely to strengthen.

If bearish momentum gains and the price falls below $6955, bullish sentiment and technical indicators will likely fade.

Key Takeaways:

* S&P 500 rebounds after a 4% pullback, regaining bullish momentum.
* AI and big tech lead gains, driven by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
* Key US data ahead (Retail Sales, NFP, Inflation) will steer market direction.
* Rate-cut odds remain low, but falling inflation could boost equities.
* Risk signals are mixed, with panic indicators elevated but technicals still bullish.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th February 2026.

Gold Breaks from Its Traditional Dollar Correlation?


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The announcement of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman nominee and heavy profit-taking have driven Gold down by 21%. Though the asset has recently regained 58% of its lost value. Gold’s outlook will now heavily depend on today’s employment data and Friday’s inflation rate.

The price movement of Gold has been somewhat static, forming range-bound conditions but with a slight bullish bias. However, when also analysing the price of the US Dollar, the correlation does not follow its traditional path. The USD has come under immense pressure over the past week, but Gold’s upward trend has been less volatile.

However, traders should note that correlations have weakened temporarily in the past but later showed a delayed response.

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is trading lower on Wednesday and has also fallen in value over the previous three trading days. The currency has been performing relatively well towards the end of January and the first week of February. This is due to investors expecting a hawkish Federal Reserve and no imminent rate cut.

However, analysts expect inflation to decline to 2.5%, an 8-month low and fairly close to the Fed’s target. As a result, the Federal Reserve may consider a small adjustment within March, which is not currently priced into the market.

Yesterday, Stephen Miran, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, said that the Republican administration’s trade policy has had only a limited impact on the US economy. He explained that most of the costs from higher tariffs and taxes have been absorbed by foreign companies. He also added that the effect on US household spending has been small.

Analysts see his comments as a sign that inflation pressures are gradually easing. This could give the Federal Reserve room to adjust monetary policy if needed, while still maintaining financial stability.

Meanwhile, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said that job growth may slow in the coming months. He pointed to slower growth in the labour force, higher productivity, and fewer migrant workers entering the country as factors that could reduce overall employment growth.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day and of the past week.

XAUUSD - Economic Data and Dollar Weakness Supports Gold

The weakening US Dollar is one of the main factors that could push gold prices higher. However, even though Gold prices remain somewhat stable and elevated, the price is not forming a bullish trend. Traditionally, due to the correlation between the USD and Gold, Gold would normally be at least 9%; however, the increase is barely maintaining a rise of 5%.

Data released the day before showed a sharp slowdown in retail sales, falling from 3.3% to 2.4% year-over-year and from 0.6% to 0.0% month-over-month, while investors had expected 0.4% growth. Excluding vehicle sales, the figure also dropped to 0.0% MoM, confirming that November’s increase was only a short-term holiday boost.

At the same time, consumers are raising concerns about rising prices and acting more cautiously amid a tense labour market. Still, the broader environment remains moderately supportive of industrial production, investment, and business spending, helping sustain the overall economic recovery after recent short-term shocks.

The main driver would be today's NFP Employment Change and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (inflation data). Traders speculating upward price movement would ideally be hoping for the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1% and for inflation to fall to 2.4%, not 2.5%.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tells the market to expect weaker employment data and “not to panic”.

Geopolitical Tensions To Return?

Gold is also supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, where talks between Iran, Israel, and the United States have failed. The US continues to demand a full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs while keeping sanctions in place.

As a result, investors are increasing gold holdings, and central banks are boosting physical gold purchases. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand hit a record 863 tons last year and remains strong. China’s central bank is also increasing gold reserves as it seeks to reduce reliance on the US Dollar.

XAUUSD - Technical Analysis


HFM - XAUUSD 10-Minute Chart

Over the past 24 hours, gold has formed a range-bound price pattern and is showing slightly more bullish than bearish momentum. The price continues to remain above the Moving Averages and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. The MACD and other Oscillators also remain on the positive side despite the lack of bullish price movement.

Today, the price is trading upwards with higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $5,038.85, the short-term bullish signals will fade.

Key Takeaways:

* Gold rebounded after a sharp drop, recovering 58% of its 21% decline, but lost momentum in the past 24-hours.
* The US Dollar is weakening, but Gold’s rise has been relatively modest despite the typical inverse correlation.
* Upcoming economic data is key, with today’s NFP and Friday’s inflation report likely to determine gold’s next major move.
* Geopolitical tensions and central bank demand support gold, with record global purchases and continued buying from China.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th February 2026.

Strong NFP Data Surprises Markets, Lifts The US Dollar.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

The latest US employment data came as a shock to market participants. Price action during and after the announcement shows that investors are unsure how to price in the new figures. This is why most assets saw a strong impulse wave, succeeded by a full correction. The only asset which saw a clear direction was the US Dollar.

Strong Economic Data Boosts US Sentiment

Analysts were previously expecting January’s employment data to be similar to the previous months. Over the past six months, the US economy, on average, has added 40,000 employed individuals on a monthly basis.

Conversely, the employment data read significantly stronger than in previous months and the current projections. The Non-Farm Payroll Change read +130,000, double previous expectations. The NFP Change is the highest reading since July 2025. The Average Hourly Earnings also rose 0.4%, higher than the previous month, where earnings only rose 0.1%. Lastly, the US Employment Rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%.

As a result, the US employment sector remains resilient and even shows some signs of expansion. This, in turn, supports the view of the majority of market participants that the US Federal Reserve will continue the pause in the “dovish” cycle and adjust the cost of borrowing by -25 basis points only once in 2026. Thus, the probability of the indicator remaining in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at the March 18th meeting is now 94%, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool. Previously, the possibility of a pause was 79%.

According to the former senior adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tim Mahedy told journalists, “It absolutely complicates the argument for lower rates”. “The January data were really strong”.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar was one of the only assets which saw momentum remain in favour of the original impulse wave. During the Asian session and the first half of the European session, the US Dollar Index was weakening. After the positive NFP results, the currency rose 0.55%. After the original spike, the currency had seen retracements and volatility. However, the index 0.12% higher than the open price and 0.45% higher than the day’s low.

On Thursday, the price of the index continues to trade higher. The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day alongside the New Zealand Dollar. The currency is likely to continue obtaining potential support from the employment data. However, this afternoon’s Weekly Unemployment Claims will renew volatility levels. If the weekly claims are lower than expectations, the Dollar potentially may rise again.


HFM - USDX 15-Minute Chart

S&P 500

The stock market at first saw a surge in buyers after the announcement of stronger employment data. This spike is most likely due to the sentiment increasing towards the US economy and its continuing economic expansion despite tariffs and new policies. However, the price was quick to correct downward and ended the day lower by 0.06%.

The stock market continues to struggle to break through the resistance level which has formed over the past week. For example, at $6,988 for the S&P 500 and $25,367 for the NASDAQ. A key factor which traders may be waiting for in order to obtain confirmation before trading is tomorrow’s CPI release. Analysts are expecting the US inflation rate to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%.

If inflation does not decline, sentiment towards the stock market may fall as the Fed will likely take a hawkish stance past March. However, as the price of the S&P 500 moves sideways, the price continues to remain above most moving averages on the 2-hour chart. Though the price is close to obtaining a bearish signal from the MACD index. The next trend will primarily depend on tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index.


HFM - USA500 15-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:

* US jobs data strongly beat expectations, with NFP at +130K, higher wages, and lower unemployment, signalling a resilient labour market.
* Fed rate cut expectations declined, with markets now pricing a 94% probability of a pause in March and only one 25bps cut in 2026.
* The US Dollar strengthened clearly, gaining momentum after the data and outperforming most major currencies.
* Stocks struggled despite strong data, with the S&P 500 facing resistance as investors await tomorrow’s CPI release for direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date: 13th February 2026.

AI Fears Weigh on Global Stocks Ahead of Today’s CPI.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

All global indices declined on Thursday, including the US, EU and Asian indices. The quick, sudden selloff is due to fear regarding AI triggering a domino effect on employment and most sectors. Economists advise that the rapid release of new AI products can hurt long-term profits and disrupt business models.

The movement continues to remain under pressure on Friday as the market sentiment remains low. In addition to this, investors are considering whether the Federal Reserve would opt for a prolonged pause. This afternoon, the US will release its latest inflation figures. The new inflation rate may shed some light on how the Federal Reserve may view its monetary policy.


HFM - S&P 500 15-Minute Chart

AI Concerns Not Only A Tech-Problem

The performance of the stock market over the past 24-months has largely been related to demand in AI products. However, the growing number of companies investing in AI, along with the rapid expansion of AI products, is raising concerns among economists. These concerns of triggering a selloff amongst stocks, and not only within Technology companies.

The number of new AI products launched this week is raising concerns about traditional business models. Sectors such as logistics, real estate, professional services, and enterprise software could face disruption or replacement. One example is Intuit’s new AI-Powered Construction Edition for its Enterprise Suite. The company announced the product on Wednesday.

Analysts warned that these tools could automate tasks that previously required human labour. This raises concerns about future revenue streams for many companies. Economists advise that rapid automation and new AI products could increase unemployment. They also warn that demand for traditional products may decline. For example, Bloomberg economists say the domino effect could impact sectors unrelated to AI or technology.

For example, if there is a lesser need for traditional products and unemployment rises, the need for real estate and office space falls significantly. Hence, one of the reasons why Real Estate stocks are also under extreme pressure. For example, Camden Property Trust stocks, which are included in the S&P 500, fell 2.95% on Thursday.

Traders may ask why technology stocks are also declining, as the risk is largely related to other sectors such as logistics, real estate and industrials. Investors focusing their portfolios on AI and the technology sector are contemplating whether there is a risk of an AI-Bubble. In addition to this, investors fear that the risk which AI bears on the economy may trigger harsher regulation.

Traders should also note that strong trending markets on new technology in the past have witnessed powerful declines. For example, the .com crash in the early 2000 where the S&P 500 fell 50% and took more than 7-years to return to its pre-crash level.

Employment and the Federal Reserve

This week’s strong labour market, including rising payrolls and lower unemployment, suggests economic resilience and reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts. As a result, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut rates in March, which is a concern for stocks.

Analysts expect inflation to decline from 2.7% to 2.5%, positive for investor sentiment and the stock market. However, if inflation does not decline to this level, investors will fear a prolonged pause, and this can pressure stocks further. Particularly as stocks are already under pressure from a “risk off” appetite.

As a last note, a positive factor for the stock market is that President Trump is contemplating whether to slightly lower tariffs on certain metals. These tariffs were put in place last summer, but recent reports indicate these tariffs may be reduced.

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

The price of the S&P 500 is currently trading 2.70% lower than the previous swing high. When monitoring previous bearish swings, the average decline that the S&P 500 witnessed is 3.65%. For this reason, price action and past price data indicate the price can potentially continue to fall.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price of the S&P 500 has fallen below the 100-bar Simple Moving Average and below the 75-Bar Exponential MA. In addition to this, the price is also witnessing bearish crossovers on most timeframes and is trading below the day’s Volume-Weighted Average Price. The VWAP is also pointing downwards, which further indicates a bearish signal.

According to the 200-BAR SMA on the 5-minute chart, a correction signal is not likely unless the price increases to $6,850.00. However, this would also depend on this afternoon’s Consumer Price Index. A lower inflation reading could boost sentiment and demand.

Key Takeaways:

* Global markets fell on Thursday on fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt multiple sectors.
* Fears arise after the release of multiple AI products throughout the week.
* AI products may automate tasks, hurt traditional revenue streams, and increase unemployment risks.
* Real estate stocks, like Camden Property Trust, fell due to declining demand for office space.
* Strong US employment reduces urgency for Fed rate cuts, while inflation data will guide policy.
* S&P 500 shows bearish technical signals, with downside risk unless CPI and sentiment improve.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th February 2026.

Gold Pulls Back, Asia Trades Lightly, and AI Volatility Lingers: Markets Recalibrate Ahead of Key US Data.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky
Global markets opened the week in a restrained mood, with Lunar New Year holidays draining liquidity from Asia, precious metals retreating from recent highs, and investors continuing to digest last week’s AI-driven volatility.

While price moves were modest on the surface, underlying themes remain significant: inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy direction, emerging market resilience, and the structural impact of artificial intelligence. US markets will also be closed on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Lunar New Year Drains Liquidity Across Asia

Trading activity across Asia was heavily influenced by Lunar New Year celebrations, creating thin market conditions and mixed equity performance. Major regional exchanges in mainland China, South Korea, and Taiwan were closed entirely. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index operated for only a half-day session, rising 0.5%.

Elsewhere:

* Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2%
* India’s BSE Sensex added 0.3%
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%

Japan’s decline was less about holiday effects and more about disappointing economic data. The country’s GDP expanded at just 0.2% annualized in the final quarter of the year, below expectations. The weaker growth print increases the likelihood that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may pursue further fiscal stimulus to revive momentum.

The Lunar New Year period once again highlights how regional cultural events can materially affect liquidity, volatility, and short-term price discovery in Asian markets.

Gold and Silver Retreat After Extreme Volatility

Precious metals moved lower on Monday as traders locked in profits amid thin trading conditions.

* Gold fell 0.6% to $5,015 per ounce
* Silver dropped 1.9% to $76.50 per ounce

The pullback follows a period of dramatic swings. Gold had previously surged to record highs before suffering a sharp 9% one-day drop following news related to Federal Reserve leadership developments. Silver has been even more volatile, sliding more than 25% from recent peaks.

Despite the latest decline, the broader trend remains powerful:

* Gold is still up approximately 70% over the past 12 months
* Silver has surged roughly 140% year-over-year

Recent price action reflects consolidation rather than structural weakness. Friday’s US inflation data, which showed moderating price pressures, briefly reignited bullish momentum by strengthening expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the lack of fresh catalysts combined with reduced Asian liquidity triggered profit-taking.

The market appears to be transitioning from aggressive momentum buying to a phase of reassessment and balance between bullish structural drivers and short-term positioning pressures.

Wall Street Stabilises After AI-Driven Turbulence

Last week’s dominant theme was artificial intelligence disruption.

Fears that AI could significantly reshape software, financial services, logistics, and real estate sectors triggered sharp moves beneath the surface of headline indices.

By Friday:

* The Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 2.1%
* The S&P 500 posted a weekly loss of 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.2% on the week

Semiconductor heavyweight Nvidia fell 2.2% on Friday, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to AI expectations. Meanwhile, AppLovin rebounded sharply after steep prior losses, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift in high-beta technology names.

Markets found some stability after softer US inflation readings reinforced the possibility of further Federal Reserve easing this year. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, attention now shifts to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Emerging Market Currencies Quietly Outperform

One of the more underappreciated developments in global markets is the unusual stability of emerging-market currencies. Volatility measures suggest EM currencies have fluctuated less than their G7 counterparts for nearly 200 consecutive trading days; a rare stretch of calm.

Several factors are contributing:

* A softer US dollar
* Expectations of gradual Fed rate cuts
* Strong commodity prices
* Robust capital inflows

The carry trade dynamic remains supportive, as investors borrow in low-yielding currencies and allocate capital to higher-yielding emerging-market assets. So far this year, a basket of developing-market currencies has gained roughly 3%, extending last year’s strong performance.

Controlled volatility continues to attract inflows, though such conditions tend to be fragile if global risk sentiment deteriorates.

Oil and FX: Stability for Now

Oil prices were largely unchanged, reflecting balanced supply-demand conditions.

In foreign exchange:

* The US dollar strengthened modestly against the Japanese yen
* The euro eased slightly versus the dollar

Movements were relatively contained, consistent with reduced liquidity and a broader wait-and-see tone ahead of key US data releases.

The Bigger Picture: Repricing, Not Panic

Markets are not in panic mode; they are in recalibration mode.

* Precious metals are consolidating after extreme swings.
* Equities are digesting AI disruption narratives.
* Emerging markets are benefiting from controlled volatility.
* Central bank expectations remain the anchor of sentiment.

With Lunar New Year disruptions fading and US inflation data ahead, liquidity will return, and with it, potentially stronger directional moves.

For now, the environment is defined by balance: optimism about easing inflation and resilient asset performance, tempered by structural uncertainty around AI, policy credibility, and global growth.

The next decisive catalyst is likely to come from inflation data and how it reshapes expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th February 2026.

Market Wrap: Tech Weakness Extends as AI Fears and Geopolitics Weigh on Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global markets reopened Tuesday with a cautious tone as investors returned from the US Presidents’ Day holiday to find risk appetite still fragile. Equity-index futures signalled further downside in US technology stocks, while bond markets attracted renewed demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting expectations around monetary policy.

US Futures Point Lower as Tech Slide Deepens

Futures linked to the S&P 500 declined roughly 0.4%, while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dropped nearly 0.8%, indicating that the recent pullback in growth and AI-linked names may not be over. The technology sector, which had driven much of the market’s upside momentum in recent months, continues to face pressure as investors reassess valuations and the longer-term implications of AI disruption.

Last week’s inflation data complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and traders now await further signals from upcoming Fed commentary and minutes from January’s policy meeting.

Bonds Gain as Safe-Haven Demand Returns

US Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to around 4.02%, reflecting defensive positioning. The Japanese yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, strengthened against the dollar, reinforcing the shift toward caution.

In Japan, government bonds rallied across the curve following stronger-than-expected demand at a five-year auction, suggesting that expectations for near-term tightening by the Bank of Japan are softening.



Asia Quiet, Europe Under Pressure

Trading volumes in Asia were subdued as markets in China, Hong Kong, and several regional centres remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Elsewhere in the region, equity performance was mixed, with Australia and India posting modest gains.

European markets have prepared for a weaker open. In the UK, the pound weakened after unemployment climbed to a near five-year high and wage growth moderated, data that could influence the Bank of England’s rate trajectory in the coming months.

Middle East Tensions Back in Focus

Geopolitical risks re-emerged as a key driver of market tone. Iran’s recent naval drills near a critical shipping route heightened concerns ahead of renewed nuclear discussions with the United States.

Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, but rhetoric has intensified. Former President Donald Trump has warned of potential military action should negotiations fail, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile environment.

Oil prices held relatively firm amid these developments, though broader commodity markets reflected risk-off sentiment.

Precious Metals and Crypto Pull Back

Despite geopolitical tensions, precious metals retreated. Gold slipped toward the $4,900 per ounce level, while silver and platinum recorded sharper losses. The decline suggests profit-taking after recent rallies rather than a full unwind of safe-haven positioning.

Cryptocurrencies also softened, with Bitcoin trading near $68,300. The pullback comes amid broader volatility across speculative assets as traders recalibrate exposure to high-beta trades.



The “AI Cannibalisation” Debate Intensifies

Artificial intelligence remains a central theme driving cross-asset volatility. While earnings growth in the US remains resilient, with companies delivering approximately 13% growth this season, concerns are building around what some strategists describe as “AI cannibalisation.”

The debate centres on whether AI adoption will enhance productivity or disrupt entire business models, particularly in software, media, and business services. Investment banks are already structuring thematic baskets that go long companies poised to benefit from AI adoption while shorting those potentially vulnerable to workflow displacement.

This divergence is adding dispersion within equity markets and amplifying stock-specific volatility.

Corporate Movers

Several notable corporate developments added to the narrative:

* BHP Group shares surged after reporting a more than 20% rise in half-year earnings, supported by strong copper prices.
* Apple Inc. announced a March 4 product launch event, fueling anticipation for new device announcements.
* Danaher Corporation is reportedly nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Masimo.
* Alibaba Group unveiled a major upgrade to its flagship AI model, intensifying competition in China’s fast-moving AI race.
* Advanced Micro Devices announced collaboration plans with Tata Consultancy Services to expand AI data-centre capabilities in India.

The Bigger Picture

Markets are navigating a complex intersection of themes:

* Slowing but persistent inflation
* Uncertainty over the timing of Fed rate cuts
* Renewed geopolitical risks
* Earnings resilience versus valuation concerns
* Structural disruption from artificial intelligence

With liquidity thinner due to global holidays and catalysts limited early in the week, volatility may remain elevated as investors look toward fresh economic data and central bank commentary for direction.

For now, the tone is defensive. Whether this develops into a deeper correction or merely a consolidation phase will likely depend on upcoming inflation readings, Fed communication, and the sustainability of corporate earnings growth.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th February 2026.

Markets Walk a Tightrope: Strong Data Meets Rising Geopolitical Risk.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

As traders approach the weekend, markets are balancing resilience in US data and corporate earnings against mounting geopolitical uncertainty. While equities have extended gains, underlying caution is becoming more visible, particularly in commodities and safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical Risk Returns to the Forefront

The key macro driver remains escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Reports suggesting an increased likelihood of military confrontation have lifted oil sharply, with Brent crude holding above $70 and West Texas Intermediate trading above $65.

Any disruption from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply, would have immediate inflation implications. That risk alone is enough to keep traders cautious, particularly ahead of a weekend when headline exposure cannot be managed intraday.

Gold has edged higher, while Bitcoin has slipped, a subtle signal that risk appetite remains selective rather than euphoric.



Labour Market Stability Keeps the Fed Patient

Thursday’s US jobless claims data is the only meaningful release on the calendar. Initial claims are expected at 225K, with continuing claims near 1.86 million. Recent labour market readings have shown gradual stabilisation rather than deterioration, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush into rate cuts.

Minutes from the January meeting revealed divisions within the central bank. Some officials remain concerned about persistent inflation, while others are open to easing later in the year. Despite hawkish undertones, market pricing still anticipates two rate cuts by year-end.

Unless jobless claims deviate significantly from expectations, the data is unlikely to shift that pricing meaningfully. For now, policy expectations remain steady, but sensitive to surprises.

Equities Supported by Tech Leadership

US futures are hovering near flat after a solid session in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both advanced, led by renewed strength in mega-cap technology.

Nvidia once again played a central role in lifting sentiment, particularly following AI-related partnership developments with Meta Platforms. Given Nvidia’s heavy index weighting, its performance continues to exert disproportionate influence on broader benchmarks.

However, the AI narrative remains double-edged. While it drives index gains, it also fuels volatility in sectors perceived as vulnerable to disruption. Markets have recently shown a tendency toward sharp rotational moves, underscoring how fragile conviction can be beneath the surface.

Global Markets and Diverging Policy Paths

In Asia, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Kospi posted gains following Wall Street’s strength. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced after inflation data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may move towards rate cuts.

This divergence highlights an important theme for currency traders: monetary cycles are no longer synchronised globally. Relative policy expectations may drive FX volatility more than absolute levels.

The Bigger Picture for Tradersv

At the moment, markets are not pricing panic, but they are pricing uncertainty.

Strong US data reduces the urgency for rate cuts. Elevated oil prices threaten to reintroduce inflationary pressure. And geopolitical risk adds a layer of unpredictability that can shift sentiment rapidly.

This environment typically produces choppy price action, sector rotation, and headline-driven volatility rather than clean, trending moves.

As we move towards the weekend, traders may find that disciplined positioning and controlled exposure matter more than directional conviction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th February 2026.

Markets Walk a Tightrope: Strong Data Meets Rising Geopolitical Risk.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

As traders approach the weekend, markets are balancing resilience in US data and corporate earnings against mounting geopolitical uncertainty. While equities have extended gains, underlying caution is becoming more visible, particularly in commodities and safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical Risk Returns to the Forefront

The key macro driver remains escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Reports suggesting an increased likelihood of military confrontation have lifted oil sharply, with Brent crude holding above $70 and West Texas Intermediate trading above $65.

Any disruption from the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply, would have immediate inflation implications. That risk alone is enough to keep traders cautious, particularly ahead of a weekend when headline exposure cannot be managed intraday.

Gold has edged higher, while Bitcoin has slipped, a subtle signal that risk appetite remains selective rather than euphoric.



Labour Market Stability Keeps the Fed Patient

Thursday’s US jobless claims data is the only meaningful release on the calendar. Initial claims are expected at 225K, with continuing claims near 1.86 million. Recent labour market readings have shown gradual stabilisation rather than deterioration, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush into rate cuts.

Minutes from the January meeting revealed divisions within the central bank. Some officials remain concerned about persistent inflation, while others are open to easing later in the year. Despite hawkish undertones, market pricing still anticipates two rate cuts by year-end.

Unless jobless claims deviate significantly from expectations, the data is unlikely to shift that pricing meaningfully. For now, policy expectations remain steady, but sensitive to surprises.

Equities Supported by Tech Leadership

US futures are hovering near flat after a solid session in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both advanced, led by renewed strength in mega-cap technology.

Nvidia once again played a central role in lifting sentiment, particularly following AI-related partnership developments with Meta Platforms. Given Nvidia’s heavy index weighting, its performance continues to exert disproportionate influence on broader benchmarks.

However, the AI narrative remains double-edged. While it drives index gains, it also fuels volatility in sectors perceived as vulnerable to disruption. Markets have recently shown a tendency toward sharp rotational moves, underscoring how fragile conviction can be beneath the surface.

Global Markets and Diverging Policy Paths

In Asia, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and Kospi posted gains following Wall Street’s strength. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced after inflation data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may move towards rate cuts.

This divergence highlights an important theme for currency traders: monetary cycles are no longer synchronised globally. Relative policy expectations may drive FX volatility more than absolute levels.

The Bigger Picture for Tradersv

At the moment, markets are not pricing panic, but they are pricing uncertainty.

Strong US data reduces the urgency for rate cuts. Elevated oil prices threaten to reintroduce inflationary pressure. And geopolitical risk adds a layer of unpredictability that can shift sentiment rapidly.

This environment typically produces choppy price action, sector rotation, and headline-driven volatility rather than clean, trending moves.

As we move towards the weekend, traders may find that disciplined positioning and controlled exposure matter more than directional conviction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th February 2026.

Brent Above $72: Markets React to Iran Tensions, Fed Uncertainty and AI Risks.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Global markets ended the week navigating a complex mix of artificial intelligence disruption fears, intensifying US-Iran tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations. While US futures attempted a modest rebound, equity benchmarks across Asia delivered a mixed performance as investors reassessed risk exposure.

At the centre of the narrative: rising oil prices, renewed geopolitical uncertainty, and growing questions about how AI-driven transformation may reshape entire industries.

Oil Climbs as US-Iran Tensions Escalate

Crude prices surged to their highest level in six months after President Donald Trump warned Iran it had roughly two weeks to reach a nuclear agreement. Meanwhile, the US expanded its military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and fighter jets, increasing the risk premium embedded in energy markets.

* Brent crude oil rose above $72 per barrel.
* West Texas Intermediate crude climbed toward $67 per barrel.
* Weekly gains exceeded 6%.

A potential military confrontation would threaten oil flows from a region responsible for roughly one-third of global supply. Unsurprisingly, investors rotated toward traditional safe havens, lifting gold and the US dollar. The geopolitical backdrop has halted what had been a tentative recovery in global equities after weeks of volatility tied to AI-related disruption concerns.



Asia Markets Mixed: Financials and Tech Under Pressure

Asian equities reflected the cautious tone.

Japan: The Nikkei 225 fell 1.2%, dragged lower by financial institutions exposed to private credit risks. Shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped after its US partner, Blue Owl Capital, restricted withdrawals from one of its funds, triggering concerns about liquidity stress in private credit markets.

Major exporters also weakened:

* Toyota Motor Corporation declined nearly 4%.
* Sony Group Corporation fell over 3%.

Hong Kong & China: The Hang Seng Index slipped as trading resumed after Lunar New Year holidays, while mainland Chinese markets remained closed.

South Korea: The Outperformer

In contrast, the KOSPI surged over 2%, extending its position as one of the best-performing markets globally this year. Defence stocks led gains. Rising global military spending and continued retail enthusiasm tied to AI-related optimism have underpinned South Korea’s equity strength in 2026.

Wall Street Struggles With AI Disruption Fears

US markets closed lower Thursday. AI-related disruption remains a dominant theme. Several companies reported solid earnings but still faced sharp sell-offs, reflecting investor anxiety that artificial intelligence could rapidly erode traditional business models.

* Booking Holdings fell over 6% despite beating expectations. The stock is down roughly 25% this year amid concerns about AI-powered competition.
* Carvana dropped nearly 8% despite stronger profits.
* Walmart swung from gains to losses after issuing a cautious outlook.

Meanwhile, energy stocks benefited from rising crude prices. Occidental Petroleum surged over 9% following stronger-than-expected earnings.

Dollar Strength and Fed Policy in Focus

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is on track for its strongest weekly performance in four months, as traders scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher oil prices could complicate the Fed’s path. Policymakers have reiterated they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before easing further. Rising energy costs risk reigniting price pressures.

Economic data delivered mixed signals:

* Jobless claims declined, suggesting layoffs may be stabilising.
M* anufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region accelerated.
* The US trade deficit widened more than expected.

The US dollar gained against the yen while the euro edged lower, reflecting haven demand and shifting rate expectations.

ECB Leadership Speculation Adds European Uncertainty

Attention also turned to Europe, where Christine Lagarde addressed speculation about a potential early departure from the European Central Bank.

Lagarde reaffirmed that her ‘baseline’ is to complete her term, emphasising her mission of safeguarding price stability and protecting the euro. However, reports suggesting political manoeuvring ahead of French elections have stirred debate about institutional independence.

The uncertainty adds another layer of complexity to European market sentiment at a time when global risk appetite is already fragile.

UK Consumer Resilience Surprises

In contrast to broader caution, UK retail sales posted their strongest growth in 20 months.

According to official data:

* January sales volumes rose 1.8%, well above expectations.
* The budget surplus hit a record high for the month.

Improving inflation trends and earlier rate cuts appear to be supporting consumer confidence. For policymakers, the data offers cautious optimism that economic momentum may be stabilising.

Emerging Markets Under Pressure

Emerging Asian equities and currencies weakened as rising oil prices and Middle East tensions dampened risk appetite.

A sustained rise in energy costs could weigh heavily on oil-importing nations while boosting commodity exporters. Currency volatility is likely to remain elevated if geopolitical risks intensify.

The Bigger Picture: Fragile Recovery Meets Geopolitical Risk

Markets are currently balancing three powerful forces:

* AI-driven structural disruption
* Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East
* Uncertain central bank policy paths

Oil’s six-month high underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can reshape risk sentiment. At the same time, concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting traditional sectors continue to pressure specific industries.

For now, investors appear cautious rather than panicked, rotating selectively into energy, defence, and safe-haven assets while trimming exposure to sectors perceived as vulnerable to technological disruption.

Whether diplomacy prevails in the Middle East and whether inflation remains contained will likely determine the next decisive move across global markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th February 2026.

Gold Surges on Monetary Policy Risks, Tariff Risks, and Iran-US Tensions.


Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Gold prices climbed to their highest level for February. Investors are driving the rally as they price in monetary policy risks, tensions with Iran, and new tariffs. Gold prices saw one of their strongest declines in history towards the end of January. However, the recent upward price movement the asset has witnessed in recent days has resulted in a 71% correction.

Inflation and Monetary Policy Risk

Higher inflation tends to trigger weaker Gold prices as investors expect the US Dollar to rise and the Federal Reserve to take a hawkish stance. However, the latest Core PCE Price Index, which read higher than expectations, is more complex. The US on Friday saw its Gross Domestic Product fall from 3% to 1.4% and both the manufacturing and services PMI read lower than expectations.

Both the PMI indexes were higher than the 50.00 level, meaning economists continue to believe the economy will continue to grow. However, the lower reading is a clear indication of strain, particularly when pairing the release with the poor GDP figures. Furthermore, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.2% to 0.4%, significantly higher than expectations. For this reason, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to adjust interest rates, but at the same time this will strain the economy.

For this reason, investors continue to increase their exposure to Gold and other safe-haven assets. President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union speech will take place at 02:00 tomorrow morning and can also trigger volatility. Economists will be closely monitoring for comments on policy and trade.

US Trade Tariffs

Another key driver of gold prices is the Supreme Court’s decision on trade tariffs and the US response. The US Supreme Court ruled that prior tariffs exceeded the administration’s legal authority. The decision limited the executive branch’s power to impose broad trade restrictions without clearer congressional approval. The ruling created market uncertainty, as investors expected the tariffs to remain and support ongoing trade negotiations.

In response, the White House signaled it would pursue alternative legal pathways to impose new global tariffs, citing different statutory authorities related to national security or trade imbalances. The US has announced a new 10% tariff, which is now in place.

This move has heightened trade tensions with key US partners and introduced renewed volatility across equities, currencies, and commodities. Markets tend to react negatively to abrupt policy shifts, particularly those that raise the risk of retaliatory measures, higher input costs for US companies, and slower global growth.

US-Iran Conflict Imminent?

US officials are weighing a possible airstrike against Iran tied to nuclear and regional security concerns, with President Trump consulting top advisers amid stalled negotiations, and Iran warning of significant retaliation if attacked. News agencies have very clearly reported the build up of navy and air force in the region which indicates an attack. However, there has not been a build-up of ground forces, which is key.

The US State Department ordered nonessential diplomats and families to leave the US Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, citing heightened threats linked to Iran and its proxies and signaling concern over potential escalation.

Gold - Technical Analysis

Over the past week, Gold has been forming clear wave highs and obtaining indications of buyers maintaining control. The price during this morning’s Asian session has formed a retracement. However, the retracement has momentum and did not fall to the previous low. As a result, price action continues to remain positive for now.


HFM - XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart
The price currently remains above the key moving average on both the two and one hour timeframes. In addition, the price remains on the positive side of the RSI. On smaller timeframes, such as the five-Minute chart, the price is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern which is a neutral signal. However, in order to obtain bullish indications, a price above $5,192 would be key. At this level the price will trade above the VWAP, 200-bar moving average and show signs of bullish momentum.

Key Takeaways:

* Gold rebounds strongly: Prices reached February highs after a sharp late-January decline and 71% correction.
* Macro uncertainty grows: Sticky inflation, weaker GDP, and softer PMIs complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions.
* Tariff risks rise: A new 10% US tariff increases trade tensions and market volatility.
* Geopolitical tensions build: Possible US action against Iran boosts safe-haven demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.